The intersection of AI and Wi-Fi will be the dominant theme in 2026 and beyond
As 2025 draws to a close, I had the opportunity to speak with three of the most influential voices shaping the future of Wi-Fi technology: Robert Stacey, Chair of the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) 802.11 Working Group; Tiago Rodrigues, CEO of the WBA (Wireless Broadband Alliance); and Kevin Robinson, CEO at the Wi-Fi Alliance. Based on these conversations and my own take, here are my predictions for Wi-Fi in 2026.
The rise of AI-powered Wi-Fi
The intersection of AI (Artificial Intelligence) and Wi-Fi will be the dominant theme in 2026 and beyond. Opportunities flow in both directions: Wi-Fi enabling AI applications, and AI making Wi-Fi networks smarter and more responsive.
On the network management side, AI is moving beyond cloud-based analytics to on-device decision-making. We’ll see AI helping with client steering, channel management, and resource allocation, with more analysis and decision-making happening directly on chipsets rather than in the cloud. The goal is making networks proactive rather than reactive—self-healing, automated, and delivering consistently better user experiences.
The Wi-Fi Alliance is actively working to ensure that new Wi-Fi capabilities are AI-ready from the outset, building standardized data models through initiatives such as Wi-Fi Data Elements. An Alliance report on AI in Wi-Fi is expected in Q1 2026.
From a standards perspective, most AI/ML (Machine Learning) applications don’t require new standardization work. Beamforming optimization is a prime application—using AI to reduce training overhead and improve predictions—along with traffic scheduling and environmental sensing. There’s significant room for vendor innovation without changes to underlying standards.
One interesting tension is emerging around data sharing among WLAN manufacturers. Pooling telemetry data could benefit smaller players who lack the massive datasets of industry giants, but larger vendors understandably view their accumulated data as a competitive differentiator. Finding common ground on what data to share for troubleshooting and performance assessment remains a challenge the industry is actively debating.
Wi-Fi 7 momentum, Wi-Fi 8 on the horizon
Wi-Fi 7 adoption has exceeded expectations despite a questionable business model. By many accounts, it has outpaced previous generations, driven by the technology’s focus on consistency rather than just peak speeds. Expect adoption to accelerate further in 2026, particularly among carriers.
Meanwhile, the IEEE 802.11 Working Group has reached a significant milestone with Wi-Fi 8 (802.11bn)—the initial draft is complete, meaning the system is reasonably feature-set complete. Key enhancements include:
- Extended MLO (Multi-Link Operation) for faster roaming
- Enhanced EDCA —also known as Prioritized EDCA. EDCA stands for Enhanced Distributed Channel Access, the listen-before-talk protocol that Wi-Fi uses. The prioritized version allows preempting ongoing transmissions to send shorter, higher-priority data packets with lower latency.
- Tone plan optimizations for 6 GHz (gigahertz) operation
- Improved support for latency-sensitive applications like gaming and AI
First Wi-Fi 8 products should appear around the end of 2027, with certification programs rolling out through late 2026 and early 2027. While some vendors will inevitably release early software-upgradable systems, don’t expect meaningful commercial availability until 2027.
The WBA plans to release an educational white paper on Wi-Fi 8 after summer 2026, and chipset manufacturers will likely begin making announcements at CES (Consumer Electronics Show).
Wi-Fi 9 and the return of millimeter wave
Discussions about Wi-Fi 9 will begin in earnest in early 2026, likely around March. A key component will be millimeter wave technology through the 802.11bq project—but with a crucial difference from the failed 802.11ad standard.
The bq project focuses on non-standalone operation, leveraging multi-link. Instead of operating independently in the 60 GHz band, devices will discover access points and establish initial connections in lower bands, then seamlessly leverage millimeter-wave for high-capacity data transfer. This approach can significantly decrease the implementation cost that doomed earlier 60 GHz efforts.
Potential applications include high-density deployments like stadiums and convention centers, enterprise environments where the 6 GHz band becomes congested, and peer-to-peer connections between nearby devices. China is particularly interested, given its spectrum constraints: it lacks access to the 6 GHz band and seeks additional capacity beyond 5 GHz.
There’s also discussion of expanding channel widths to 480 MHz (megahertz) in Wi-Fi 9, up from the current 320 MHz maximum—though implementing such wide channels presents significant challenges given the fragmented nature of available spectrum.
Spectrum policy: A fragmenting landscape
Delivering on Wi-Fi’s promise requires forward-thinking spectrum policy, yet Wi-Fi remains underrepresented in regulatory discussions, even as it carries the lion’s share of data traffic. Around 80% of overall traffic runs over fixed-line networks, with Wi-Fi handling the last mile indoors. While mobile vendors tout XR and VR as drivers of cellular growth, the reality is that Wi-Fi will bear the brunt of that demand.
The six gigahertz band is the battleground. As 2.4 GHz and 5 GHz become increasingly congested, Wi-Fi needs room to grow, and 6 GHz offers the space for 320 MHz channels capable of supporting high-throughput, low-latency applications. The WBA’s recent survey found that 65% of respondents consider 6 GHz availability “important” or “critical” to their Wi-Fi business.
But global approaches are fragmenting. The US leads with the full 1,200 MHz available for unlicensed use. Europe has only the lower portion, with the upper band likely heading toward licensed allocation following the RSPG recommendation. In Asia Pacific, the picture is mixed: South Korea follows the US model with full unlicensed access, Japan offers only the lower portion, and China dedicates the entire band to mobile.
The outlook isn’t entirely bleak. Countries currently on the fence are expected to gain confidence as neighbors move forward. India is anticipated to open up for unlicensed use. Spectrum sharing approaches, like those under consideration by Ofcom in the UK, may offer a middle path for nations wanting to hedge their bets.
One factor working in Wi-Fi’s favor: the rise of software-defined radios with configurable hardware. Enterprises can deploy tri-band infrastructure today and reassign radios to 6 GHz as device penetration increases, future-proofing their investments.
By the end of the decade, 6 GHz will be a predominant spectrum band for Wi-Fi. Those countries that have allocated the majority of it to mobile operators will hope they made the right call.
AFC: A boost for residential broadband
AFC (Automated Frequency Coordination) is poised to deliver tangible benefits in 2026, though perhaps not where many expected. Residential broadband carriers appear to be the primary beneficiaries. The value proposition is straightforward: if a home currently needs three mesh pods for coverage, standard power operation might reduce that to two.
For dense enterprise deployments—stadiums, convention centers—the calculus is different. These venues already deploy very dense AP networks. Standard power may save some access points, but given the device-density requirements, operators may not want to reduce the AP count.
AFC and similar dynamic spectrum access mechanisms continue to gain ground globally, though policy developments in Europe following the recent RSPG (Radio Spectrum Policy Group) recommendation warrant close monitoring.
OpenRoaming’s expanding footprint
The WBA’s OpenRoaming initiative continues its steady growth trajectory. Major retail brands including Zara are deploying OpenRoaming-enabled networks, along with healthcare institutions and municipalities. Japan remains the clear leader, followed by the UK, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Luxembourg, and the US.
The business case has evolved beyond simple connectivity. For retailers, OpenRoaming represents the foundation of digital transformation strategies—automatic payments, personalized experiences, and customer identification all require ubiquitous connectivity as a first step. The immediate feedback from deployments has been positive: previously underutilized Wi-Fi networks are suddenly seeing millions of connections.
Healthcare and municipalities are expected to be major champions in 2026, though in-flight Wi-Fi remains a complex vertical with multiple stakeholders where progress will be slower.
On the device side, Samsung and Google Pixel provide OpenRoaming identities by default, though broader Android adoption remains a work in progress. China and India present limited OpenRoaming activity—China, in particular, remains a complex market to penetrate.
Security: Preparing for the post-quantum era
A significant security transition is approaching. Government requirements for post-quantum secure cryptography are expected around 2027, initially from US agencies but likely to expand to other governments and eventually to enterprise requirements.
The cryptographic keys used to encrypt data today are vulnerable to quantum cryptography cracking. The IEEE is developing new key-generation methods through a short-term project to address this emerging threat. Initially, government agencies will require post-quantum secure cryptography for procurement, driving vendor support. The requirement will then expand to the broader marketplace.
The 802.11bi project on enhanced user privacy protection is also progressing, though it’s taking longer to complete.
IoT: Will Wi-Fi HaLow find its market?
Wi-Fi HaLow (802.11ah) is gaining traction against proprietary sub-1 GHz technologies, gradually taking over sensing applications like utility meter reading. But the fundamental question remains: can HaLow carve out a sustainable position between technologies that already dominate their niches?
LoRa offers kilometers of range with minimal power consumption—ideal for smart meters and agricultural sensors. Standard Wi-Fi blankets most indoor environments. HaLow needs use cases where standard Wi-Fi cannot reach but LoRa’s bandwidth is too restrictive—a narrower segment than advocates might hope.
If an enterprise already has Wi-Fi coverage, what justifies deploying a separate HaLow network? Video surveillance in hard-to-reach locations or industrial scenarios requiring extended range with moderate data rates are possibilities, but these remain niche compared to LoRa’s massive utility deployments or standard Wi-Fi’s ubiquity.
On the positive side, HaLow offers flexibility that operator-dependent alternatives like LoRa or NB-IoT cannot match—organizations can deploy their own networks independently. Meanwhile, Wi-Fi 7’s improved consistency and a new IoT-optimized 20 MHz mode (to be announced at CES) may further squeeze HaLow’s market opportunity.
The convergence question
The relationship between Wi-Fi and cellular continues to evolve, though not necessarily in the direction many assume. Conventional wisdom suggests Wi-Fi is becoming more like cellular, but the opposite may be more accurate.
Cellular is moving toward Wi-Fi’s packet-based, stateless architecture—a trend that accelerated with 5G (fifth generation cellular) and will continue into 6G. The distributed, listen-before-talk approach that defines Wi-Fi remains the optimal way to use unlicensed spectrum.
The technologies are complementary rather than competitive: Wi-Fi for indoor, high-density, high-capacity scenarios; cellular for true mobility and outdoor coverage. Private 5G has a role in enterprise scenarios, but public network focus doesn’t always meet the needs of private networks, which require careful tuning to specific enterprise requirements.
One concern worth noting: indoor connectivity and private networks remain underrepresented in policy discussions, which tend to focus on public mobile networks.
Multi-Link Operation: The unfinished story
Perhaps the most understated prediction involves MLO, the headline feature of Wi-Fi 7. MLO still has a long way to play out and represents the primary path to throughput improvement given spectrum fragmentation.
Today’s implementations largely use EMLSR (Enhanced Multi-Link Single Radio) mode—a single radio that smartly switches between channels. True STR (Simultaneous Transmit and Receive) across multiple bands remains an implementation challenge, particularly for constrained client devices like smartphones where antenna separation is limited.
The near-far problem is significant: when transmitting on one channel, leakage into the receiver on the other channel is substantial. Solutions require hard filtering between bands and potentially echo cancellation techniques. As chipmakers solve these challenges through 2026 and beyond, expect more sophisticated MLO implementations to emerge.
Access points handle MLO more easily—they can dedicate separate antenna arrays to different bands. Client devices face the harder problem, but progress here will unlock MLO’s full potential.
Related emerging technologies to watch
Several emerging technologies deserve attention:
Ambient Power Communications: This project targets extremely low-power Wi-Fi for applications like warehouse tracking and food distribution monitoring—temperature exposure tracking during transport, locating packages in distribution centers, and similar use cases. These devices either harvest ambient energy or use coin-cell batteries that last for years. The project is moving more slowly than others, with an initial draft expected around March-May 2026.
Optical/Light-Based Wi-Fi: Work continues on 802.11 in the optical bands, primarily for military applications where light’s directional nature offers security advantages over RF (Radio Frequency). An interesting application: these bands are well-suited for underwater communications, potentially enabling Wi-Fi connectivity to autonomous underwater equipment where RF performance is poor.
Direct-to-Device Satellite: This is a significant trend to watch, though its Wi-Fi relevance lies mainly in the traditional satellite backhaul-to-Wi-Fi last-mile model. LEO (Low Earth Orbit) constellations will help significantly with this use case. The key question: will MNOs (Mobile Network Operators) embrace direct-to-device services beyond areas without cellular coverage?
Key takeaways for 2026
- AI integration will be the dominant theme, with innovation happening primarily at the implementation level rather than through new standards.
- Wi-Fi 7 will see accelerated carrier adoption, while Wi-Fi 8 completes its standardization process (no products until 2027).
- Wi-Fi 9 discussions begin, with integrated millimeter wave as a key component.
- AFC benefits residential broadband providers; enterprise value remains case-by-case.
- OpenRoaming expands in retail, healthcare, and municipal deployments.
- Post-quantum security preparations accelerate ahead of 2027 government requirements.
- Multi-link operation continues maturing with more sophisticated implementations.
- The Wi-Fi-cellular relationship evolves toward greater complementarity, with cellular architectures moving toward Wi-Fi’s packet-based approach.
