Which 6G innovations will save money, which might make money, and which are mirages?
Editor’s note: This is the second installment of a three-part series from Analyst Vish Nandlall. Read the first article here, and keep an eye out for part three.
Every mobile generation has been defined not just by what it could do, but by what it made economically viable. 3G enabled the mobile internet, 4G unleashed apps and video, 5G brought eMBB and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA). Each had a business model tied to the technologies of its time. For 6G, the challenge is sharper: The industry must choose carefully between technologies that reduce costs, those that may open new markets, and those that are dazzling but economically unsustainable. The key question is not whether these innovations are possible, but whether they can pass the economic test of value creation, delivery, and capture.
The software-only imperative: Implications for MNOs and vendors
The most consequential decision has already been made. The 3GPP standards body has confirmed that 6G will reuse the OFDM-based air interface of 5G. This is no mere technical detail; it is a profound economic signal. Instead of a costly hardware refresh cycle, 6G will evolve through software upgrades, architectural refinements, and AI-native design. The implications ripple across the ecosystem.
MNOs: A victory for CAPEX control
For operators, this is a significant win. They have consistently asked for 6G to be an evolution of 5G, not a revolution demanding another round of multibillion-dollar RAN investment with uncertain returns. A “software-only” 6G means the existing, hugely expensive RAN can be left largely intact, with upgrades delivered via software. This avoids a massive hardware refresh cycle and allows operators to redirect scarce capital toward the core network, automation, and enterprise services where new value can be created.
Reduced incentive for rapid upgrade
But there is a downside: without a new air interface, there are fewer compelling drivers for operators to promote 6G as a branded consumer upgrade. Just as the transition from 5G Non-Standalone to Standalone has been slow and invisible to consumers, the shift to 6G may be gradual and understated. Operators may opt to roll out new capabilities under the 5G-Advanced label rather than trigger a 6G marketing cycle.
Vendors: The end of the upgrade uplift
For equipment vendors, the decision is sobering. Without a new air interface, there is no “6G hardware event” to stimulate demand for fresh RAN deployments. Vendors, already under financial pressure and rounds of downsizing, cannot count on a 6G capex uplift to bail them out. The business model must pivot: away from one-off RAN sales and toward software, AI-driven network optimization, and systems integration. The future lies in recurring software revenues and services, not hardware refreshes.
The “save money” path: Operational efficiency
The surest bets for 6G are technologies that lower costs and improve efficiency. Operators face flat revenues and shrinking margins; reducing cost per bit is existential.
AI-native RAN and core: Embedding machine learning directly into the radio and core promises autonomous networks that self-optimize, predict failures, and reduce OPEX. The macroeconomic case is strong: energy costs and labor represent significant operator expenses, and automation offers measurable ROI. Operators control unique network data, giving them a comparative advantage, though hyperscalers remain formidable AI competitors.
Green 6G: Energy efficiency is both an economic and ESG imperative. With the RAN consuming more than 80% of network energy, reducing per-bit consumption is critical. Targets call for a 50% power reduction while delivering 10x more capacity. The business logic is clear: less energy cost per bit equals more profit, especially as sustainability pressures mount from regulators and investors.
These are not flashy innovations, but they are the ones most likely to scale globally and deliver immediate economic benefits. They pass all four tests: unmet need, profitability, comparative advantage, and scalability.
The “make money” path: Market expansion
The next tier of technologies aim to create new revenue streams. These carry more risk, as they require customers to pay for outcomes that are not yet proven.
Spectrum expansion (FR3): Upper mid-band spectrum (7–24 GHz) offers a practical balance of coverage and capacity. Operators know how to acquire and deploy spectrum, and demand for broadband capacity still exists. While expensive to clear and auction, FR3 is a necessary evolution and has strong near-term commercial viability. By contrast, sub-THz spectrum (above 90 GHz) is physics-limited: massive propagation loss, line-of-sight requirements, and immature hardware make it a niche for backhaul or specialized enterprise uses, not mass-market broadband.
Integrated Sensing and Communications (ISAC): In theory, ISAC creates a new service layer. The headline being that networks can sense the environment while carrying data. In practice, the economics are dubious. OFDM waveforms are poorly suited to high-precision sensing, and performance may lag dedicated solutions like existing traffic cameras, approach radar and LiDAR. Each cell-site upgrade could cost $50,000–$100,000, with no proven demand. This is a classic “technology push” without clear willingness to pay.
Non-terrestrial networks (NTN): Direct-to-device satellite links promise global coverage. The need is undeniable in maritime, agriculture, and logistics (having said that, there are existing technologies already in place). But the cost per gigabyte is far too high for consumer broadband. NTN will be a profitable niche, not a mass-market revolution.
High-accuracy positioning and deterministic networking: These enterprise-facing technologies solve real problems: industrial automation, logistics, and robotics need guaranteed performance. Enterprises show willingness to pay for SLAs tied to reliability and precision. For operators, this represents a defensible comparative advantage, since they can manage end-to-end quality of service in ways hyperscalers cannot.
The “high-Risk, high-reward” path
Some 6G technologies inspire excitement but remain speculative.
Ambient/passive IoT: Imagine trillions of battery-free tags powered by ambient radio waves. The potential scale is massive, but the economics flip the traditional ARPU model: revenues would be fractions of a cent per device. The value may accrue to application providers, not operators, unless telcos reinvent themselves as high-volume, low-margin platforms.
Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces (RIS) and cell-free MIMO: These promise to reshape radio environments and eliminate cell edges. But deployment costs are immense, operational complexity is daunting, and mature alternatives (like DAS, small cells, and repeaters) already exist. Until breakthroughs in cost and simplicity occur, these will remain research projects, not commercial drivers.
The technology scorecard
A clear dichotomy emerges when viewed through an economic lens:
- High Viability: AI-Native RAN, Green 6G, FR3 spectrum, deterministic networking.
- Niche Opportunities: NTN, sub-THz (backhaul), ambient IoT (if business model evolves).
- High-Risk Bets: ISAC, RIS, cell-free MIMO.
The macro context reinforces this logic. With saturated penetration and ARPU under pressure, telcos cannot afford speculative bets. Capital intensity must be directed toward technologies that either reduce cost per bit or enable enterprise-grade services with proven willingness to pay. Anything else risks another 5G-style disappointment, only more expensive.
| Technology | Maturity Level | Key Benefits | Major Limitations & Costs | Key Vendor Proponents | 3GPP Status (Rel-19/20) | Commercial Viability Outlook |
| AI-Native RAN/Core | Early Standard (Rel-20) | OPEX/Energy Reduction, Automation | R&D Costs, New Skill Sets, Model Complexity | Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung, Huawei, Qualcomm | Core Study Item | Near-Term (High) |
| Spectrum (FR3) | Prototype/Testing | Balanced Capacity & Coverage | Spectrum Clearing & Auction Costs | All | Core Study Item | Near-Term (High) |
| Spectrum (Sub-THz) | Research | Extreme Throughput (>100 Gbps) | Short Range, High Propagation Loss, Immature Hardware | Huawei | Research Phase | Long-Term (Niche) |
| ISAC | Prototype | New Sensing Revenue Streams | High Per-Site Upgrade Cost ($50k+), Unproven Business Case, OFDM Waveform Limitations | Qualcomm, Huawei | Core Study Item | Mid-to-Long-Term (High Risk) |
| NTN (Direct-to-Device) | Early Standard (Rel-17+) | Ubiquitous Coverage | High Cost-per-Bit, Latency, SWaP-C | Qualcomm, Nokia, Samsung | Ongoing Enhancements | Near-Term (Niche) |
| High-Accuracy Positioning | 5G-Advanced Evolution | High-Value Enterprise Services | Network Densification for Accuracy | Qualcomm | Ongoing Enhancements | Near-Term (High) |
| Deterministic Networking | 5G-Advanced Evolution | Enables Industrial Control/Robotics | Requires End-to-End Network Slicing | Ericsson | Ongoing Enhancements | Near-Term (High) |
| Ambient/Passive IoT | 5G-Advanced Study | Trillion-Device Scale, Zero Power | Ultra-Low Margin Per Device | Nokia | Study Item | Mid-Term (Challenging) |
| Cell-free / XL-MIMO | Research | Uniform Service Quality | High Fronthaul & Deployment Costs | Samsung | Research Phase | Long-Term (Low) |
| RIS | Research | Signal Enhancement, Low Power | Unproven in Real-World, High Deployment Cost | Samsung | Research Phase | Long-Term (Low) |
The stakes for 6G
The winners of 6G will not be the most futuristic technologies, but the ones that make economic sense. Operators cannot rely on speculative consumer visions like holograms or immersive AR. Instead, they must double down on efficiency, enterprise services, and pragmatic spectrum strategies. The technologies that help telcos save money and capture enterprise demand are the ones that will define 6G.
If 3G was the mobile internet, 4G was apps and video, and 5G was eMBB and FWA, then 6G must be defined by something economically coherent. Without discipline, the industry risks betting billions on mirages while missing the practical innovations that could secure its future.
