Dell’Oro said the latest data reinforces the view that while telecom capex has peaked, it is not collapsing
In sum – what to know:
Capex stabilizes in Q2 – After two years of reductions, global telecom spending leveled off, easing fears of a steep downturn.
Shift in spending priorities – Operators are moving investment toward capacity, quality, automation, and energy performance instead of broad coverage builds.
Capital intensity trends down – By 2029, telecom capex-to-revenue ratios are projected at 15%, with wireless intensity at 12–13%, reflecting post-5G normalization.
Global telecom capital expenditures stabilized in the second quarter of 2025 after two years of reductions, according to a new report from Dell’Oro Group.
The firm said the latest data reinforces the view that while capex has peaked, it is not collapsing.
“Capex is past the peak, but it is not falling off a cliff,” said Stefan Pongratz, vice president of RAN and telecom capex research at Dell’Oro Group. “Operators are shifting spending priorities from blanket coverage toward capacity, quality, automation, and energy efficiency. After four years of climbing capex-to-revenue ratios, the metric dropped significantly in 2024 from its 2022 high. It is expected to remain stable through 2025, ease slightly thereafter, and edge higher again toward the end of the decade.”
The Dell’Oro report notes that while Q2 showed stabilization, total first-half 2025 capex was still down year-over-year due to steep Q1 declines. Overall, the investment environment is expected to remain challenging for both capex and telecom equipment revenues, it added.
By 2029, capex-to-revenue ratios are projected to approach 15%, about three points lower than the 2022 peak. Wireless capital intensity is forecast to reach 12–13% by 2029, down five to six points from the 5G rollout highs.
Dell’Oro previously reported that the global mobile core network (MCN) market experienced a strong expansion in the second quarter of 2025, rising 19% year-over-year.
The report noted that the growth was led by a 31% surge in the 5G mobile core network (MCN) segment, while the voice core segment surged 18%.
The Dell’Oro report also highlighted that the multi-access edge computing (MEC), part of the 5G packet core, rose 32% year-and-year and is forecast to climb 44% for full-year 2025.
The global 5G mobile core network market is projected to grow at a 6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029, according to a previous report by Dell’Oro Group. The acceleration is largely attributed to the rising adoption of 5G SA architecture.
