Dell’Oro largely attributed market acceleration to the rising adoption of 5G SA architecture
In sum – what you need to know:
5G SA pushes MCN growth – Dell’Oro forecasts 6% CAGR for mobile core infrastructure as standalone networks expand across new markets.
MEC gains API momentum – Network slicing, RedCap IoT, and GSMA’s Open Gateway APIs are fueling 17% annual growth in edge computing.
AI may reshape demand – Generative and Agentic AI are expected to drive future demand for low-latency, autonomous mobile networks.
The global 5G Mobile Core Network (MCN) market is projected to grow at a 6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029, according to a new forecast from Dell’Oro Group. The acceleration is largely attributed to the rising adoption of 5G Standalone (SA) architecture, which supports next-generation network capabilities.
Meanwhile, the Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC) segment is expected to expand at a significantly faster 17% CAGR, driven by network slicing, Reduced Capability (RedCap) devices, and the increasing momentum of network APIs, particularly those linked to the GSMA’s Open Gateway initiative.
“Our forecasts are primarily driven by subscriber growth rates and the usual subscriber behavior, and for the 5G MCN segment, our current projection is at a 6% CAGR,” said Dave Bolan, research director at Dell’Oro Group. “However, the emergence of Generative AI and Agentic AI, especially with increased data traffic and expectations for continuous, low-latency connectivity, may eventually require expanded network capacity, which could push the growth rate even higher. Agentic AI is also the key to reaching L4 autonomous networking, which could dramatically reduce operational costs for mobile network operators (MNOs).”
“MEC is expected to grow at a 17% CAGR due to the convergence of several key developments,” Bolan noted. “Dynamic network slicing is enabling on-demand performance enhancements, RedCap is helping reduce the cost and complexity of IoT device connectivity, and the GSMA’s Open Gateway initiative (a.k.a. Network APIS) is rapidly gaining momentum. Seventeen APIs have already been defined, with support from 72 MNOs worldwide. Vendors are actively building and marketing Open Gateway-compliant solutions, further accelerating MEC adoption and ecosystem expansion,” he added.
Other highlights from the recent Dell’Oro report include:
-With the ongoing phase-out of 3G networks, operators are upgrading circuit-switched cores to IMS cores to preserve voice services over 4G. Dell’Oro now projects that IMS Core/Voice Core cumulative revenue from 2025–2029 will be 9% higher than previously forecasted.
-To date, 70 operators across 39 countries or territories have launched 5G SA networks. In 2025 alone, five new deployments occurred, including Orange in France, Romania, and Slovakia; Vodafone in Spain; and O2 in the Czech Republic.
-Many operators currently limit 5G SA to enterprise use and fixed wireless access (FWA), but are expected to extend access to consumers soon. These include Bouygues Telecom, O2 Telefónica, and SFR in France; Bharti Airtel in India; Three in Ireland; Sunrise in Switzerland; and AT&T and Verizon in the U.S.
In May, Dell’Oro reported that the global mobile core network (MCN) market experienced a 32% year-over-year growth in the first quarter of 2025. China posted a 122% year-over-year increase, while the rest of the world saw 12% growth. As such, Dell’Oro is now projecting 5% year-over-year growth in the total MCN market in 2025, and 15% growth in the 5G MCN segment – driven by a 12%increase in China and 3% in the rest of the world.
Besides the China picture, Dell’Oro Group said Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA region) will see the highest growth in 2025.
Separately, recent figures from Dell’Oro Group find that after two years of steep declines, the Radio Access Network (RAN) market improved in the quarter. Preliminary estimates show that worldwide RAN revenues, excluding services, stabilized in the period, resulting in the first growth since the first quarter of 2023. Stefan Pongratz, vice president for RAN market research at the firm, put the upside down to a “favorable regional mix and lighter comps.”
