Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry. In the coming weeks look for columns from Current Analysis’ Peter Jarich and more.
In the U.S. handset market, multimedia has entered the mainstream. As of November 2007, camera phones represented 79% of U.S. handset sales, cameras that capture video accounted for 56%, and 52% of phones could play music, according to NPD’s Mobile Phone Track.
Nonetheless, sales of devices dedicated to these tasks continue to flourish. According to NPD’s retail tracking service, sales of digital single-lens reflex (SLR) cameras saw an annual unit increase of 66% last November. In the same month, sales of camcorders grew 46%, driven both by high-definition models as well as inexpensive, Flash-based models that offer easy links to YouTube. And despite Apple joining the handset field on its own terms, the company continues to see strong iPod growth.
Yet none of these product categories last year approached the growth of portable navigation devices, such as those sold by Garmin and TomTom. Unit volume grew sevenfold last November, as average prices plummeted from $396.62 to $209.28. During the holidays Black Friday promotions offered some entry-level models for less than $100. These products — used primarily when one is lost or in unfamiliar territory — are now becoming affordable luxuries.
Meanwhile carrier partners, such as Networks in Motion and TeleNav, have worked hard to close the user-experience gap as they fight against the limited display and input capabilities of mainstream handsets. But it’s becoming less about catching up and more about which camp will best leverage services to bring valuable information resources to consumers in their vehicles.
Cellular connectivity
Dash Navigation has shown some potential for combining the optimized design of a portable navigation device (PND) with cellular connectivity. This startup is gambling that customers will pony up $10 or more per month to enjoy the kinds of services that could be built into GPS-enabled phones. Seeking a compromise between “live” wireless information and a high subscription price, more established PND vendors, like Garmin, are partnering with MSN Direct — formerly best known for smart watches and desktop weather stations — for information services on their devices.
Even the iPhone, which lacks a GPS receiver, received an update at Macworld Expo that leverages A-GPS and Wi-Fi beacon-sniffing technology from Skyhook Wireless to determine the user’s location. While the iPhone’s Google Maps application lacks turn-by-turn directions, the arrival of Apple’s iPhone SDK in late February should enable third parties to develop such an application, or even perhaps enable communication with a Bluetooth GPS receiver for more precise and reliable positioning. The Apple handset’s momentum and large display could make it the most formidable handset rival to dedicated PNDs we’ve seen to date.
Multimedia-enhanced navigation
Achieving the ultimate marriage of the GPS receiver and cellular radio will require a lot of bridge-building. The standard for reliability and coverage are higher than for entertainment-based services. Even with Dash Navigation’s subscription premium, the company is only sipping data over the GPRS network.
As faster open networks target affordable access to connected consumer electronics, they can open a world of multimedia-enhanced navigation. At the Consumer Electronics Show, in-dash GPS vendor Clarion announced plans to bring its Mobile Internet Navigation Device wireless car-based UMPC to WiMAX, as the network rolls out. You wouldn’t recognize it, after its multimedia makeover — but the car phone is coming back.
