Nokia has cut its 2025 profit forecast by up to 16%, citing US dollar weakness and new tariffs. Shares dropped 8% as currency and trade pressures dented its top-line quarterly performance.
In sum – what to know
Revised down – Nokia has adjusted its 2025 profit outlook to €1.6-2.1bn, down from €1.9-2.4bn.
Outside impacts – a weaker dollar has cost the firm around €230m; US tariffs have cost it €50-80m.
Niche gains – strong private 5G momentum in the quarter; overall net sales of €4.55 billion expected.
Nokia has slashed its own 2025 profit forecast by €300 million, and blamed a tumbling US exchange rate and the latest US trade tariffs. Ahead of its second-quarter results on Thursday (July 24), the Finnish firm said it is “prudent” to lower its full-year profit outlook, now, to between €1.6 billion and €2.1 billion – between about 12.5 percent and 16 percent down, from €1.9 billion to €2.4 billion. It cited “headwinds” that are “outside its control”, which have transpired since it made its original 2025 operating forecast in April, on the back of its first-quarter showing.
As European markets opened today (July 23), its shares are trading as much as eight percent lower – versus when it posted the update (yesterday; July 22). Ericsson’s results last week showed similar currency and tariff impacts. Nokia said currency fluctuations – “particularly the weaker US dollar”, valued at €1.04 in its report, versus €1.17 in January – have had a €230 million negative-impact in the quarter, split between €140 million in operational profitability and a €90 million accountancy adjustment to the value of venture funds.
The current tariff landscape cost the firm between €50 million and €80 million in the year, it said.
The firm expects to report second-quarter net sales of €4.55 billion and comparable operating profit of €300 million on July 24. It stated: “Nokia’s underlying business performed as expected through the first half, however, considering currency and tariff headwinds which are outside its control and have transpired since its Q1 results, the company feels it is prudent at this point to lower its operating profit outlook range.” It expects to convert 50-80 percent of its comparable operating profit into free cash flow, as previously guided.
RCR Wireless will bring word on its full results tomorrow. Among its regular niche bright spots, it is expected to provide some detail of its performance in the private networks market. Last week, Memphis Light, Gas and Water (MLGW), billed as the “largest three-service municipal utility” in the US, said it had selected Nokia to build a wide-area private 5G network to support its “multi-year grid modernization strategy” across Memphis and Shelby County, in Tennessee. It will be the US utility sector’s first “full-scale” private 5G SA network, the pair said.
In 2024, MLGW filed with the FCC to purchase $27 million of 600MHz spectrum from Bluewater Wireless. It has set aside $31 million for construction of the network, according to reports. Nokia also features in the new private 5G project at Thames Freeport in the UK, managed by Verizon Business. Like Ericsson, it features strongly in a round-up of the biggest recent private 5G projects. More on that to come tomorrow, also.
