Dell’Oro said near-term O-RAN revenue expectations have been revised downward, while longer-term growth assumptions have improved
In sum – what to know:
Long-term O-RAN outlook improves – Expectations for the second half of 5G and early 6G deployments lifted the long-term forecast, despite weaker near-term revenue projections.
Cloud RAN timing pushed back – Performance, power, and cost-parity issues with purpose-built RAN are slowing adoption, leading to downward revisions.
Multi-vendor RAN share trimmed – Dell’Oro now expects it to account for under 5% of the RAN market by 2030, down from a prior 5–10% forecast.
Open RAN (O-RAN) has made significant progress since the Open RAN Alliance was formed in 2018, but results have been uneven and industry expectations have shifted, according to a new report from Dell’Oro Group.
“Openness, intelligence, automation, and virtualization remain key pillars in the next-generation RAN platforms,” Stefan Pongratz, vice president of RAN market research at Dell’Oro, said in a release. “But the adoption curves vary. The likelihood that O-RAN, cloud RAN, and multi-vendor RAN will play a major role in the second half of 5G and from the start with 6G is likely, less likely, and unlikely, respectively,” he added.
Dell’Oro said near-term O-RAN revenue expectations have been revised downward, while longer-term growth assumptions have improved. This reflects the current pace of Open Fronthaul (Open FH) deployments and its increasing role as a baseline feature in next-generation RAN platforms.
The report also notes that cloud RAN projections have been lowered. Although virtualization remains central to the long-term RAN roadmap, challenges related to performance, power consumption, and cost parity with purpose-built systems are affecting adoption timelines.
Meanwhile, expectations for multi-vendor RAN have weakened. Dell’Oro now expects it to represent less than 5% of the total RAN market by 2030, down from the previous forecast of 5–10%.
RCR Wireless News asked Pongratz which geographic markets are most likely to drive the next phase of O-RAN deployments. Pongratz said: “The Asia Pacific and North America regions are expected to dominate overall, together accounting for nearly 80% of the combined investments.”
Global RAN market conditions are beginning to stabilize, according to a recent forecast from Dell’Oro Group. With no major near-term growth drivers, RAN spending is expected to remain subdued until 6G-related capital expenditure gradually ramps up toward the end of the decade, the report stated.
Dell’Oro’s mobile RAN 5-year forecast report, published last month, reiterates that RAN is not a long-term growth market. Instead, spending fluctuates as operators adjust investment levels based on new spectrum availability, technology cycles, and capacity demand. The firm’s base-case outlook assumes broadly stable RAN revenues and capex trends, with improving capital intensity ratios ahead of a future 6G investment cycle.
Worldwide RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 1% CAGR over the next five years, as declining LTE revenues offset continued 5G deployments and early-stage 6G activity. RAN is expected to account for roughly 20% to 25% of total wireless capex during the forecast period, according to the research firm.
