Dell’Oro noted that RAN spending is expected to remain subdued until 6G-related capex gradually ramps up toward the end of the decade
In sum – what to know:
RAN market stabilizing post-5G peak – After shedding nearly $10 billion in revenue during 2023–2024, the global RAN market is leveling out, with limited near-term growth until 6G investments approach the end of the decade.
1% CAGR – Global RAN revenues are forecast to grow at a 1% CAGR over five years, as falling LTE spending offsets ongoing 5G deployments and early 6G investment.
Capex focus remains disciplined – RAN is expected to represent 20–25% of wireless capex, with operators prioritizing efficiency and capital intensity improvements ahead of future 6G rollouts.
After sharp declines in 2023 and 2024 following the peak of 5G investments, global RAN market conditions are beginning to stabilize, according to a new forecast from Dell’Oro Group. With no major near-term growth drivers, RAN spending is expected to remain subdued until 6G-related capital expenditure gradually ramps up toward the end of the decade, the report stated.
“The past couple of years have been extremely challenging, with RAN losing nearly $10 billion in global revenue,” Stefan Pongratz, vice president for RAN market research at Dell’Oro Group, said in a release. “While risks remain on both sides and are still skewed slightly to the downside due to slower data traffic growth, growing confidence around 6G supports the view that meaningful 6G-related revenue could emerge by 2030.”
Dell’Oro’s mobile RAN 5-year forecast report, published this month, reiterates that RAN is not a long-term growth market. Instead, spending fluctuates as operators adjust investment levels based on new spectrum availability, technology cycles, and capacity demand. The firm’s base-case outlook assumes broadly stable RAN revenues and capex trends, with improving capital intensity ratios ahead of a future 6G investment cycle.
Worldwide RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 1% CAGR over the next five years, as declining LTE revenues offset continued 5G deployments and early-stage 6G activity. RAN is expected to account for roughly 20% to 25% of total wireless capex during the forecast period, according to the research firm.
“Massive MIMO and beamforming will be pivotal technologies for deploying 6G in the 6 GHz+ range, leveraging the existing macro grid,” Pongratz told RCR Wireless News.
“Open FH will likely be deployed at scale with 6G, even if multi-vendor RAN will remain in the noise,” he added.
Swedish vendor Ericsson recently said it expects the global RAN market to remain flat in 2026, extending a prolonged slowdown as operators continue to limit network spending.
