Significant change will grip the satellite IoT industry this year, driven by several external forces
Satellite IoT is undergoing an evolution, which will be accelerated by several key factors, from geopolitical tensions to AI capabilities, ensuring it is no longer a niche. Indeed, forecasts put the global subscriber base at 32.5 million by 2029, as more and more key industries require connectivity far beyond terrestrial coverage.
But evolution doesn’t happen before obstacles are overcome. There are several key trends that we, and the 211 European peers we surveyed, believe will play important roles in shaping the satellite IoT industry next year and beyond.
Security and resilience become the number one focus
Nearly half (45%) of those we surveyed agreed security and resilience are the primary drivers of changing satellite IoT buying behaviour. Geopolitical uncertainty and rising tensions have dramatically increased demand for secure and resilient connectivity when it comes to critical national infrastructure (CNI) monitoring, maritime operations, and remote industrial telemetry, where failure cannot be an option.
While satellite communications have advantages in global coverage and cyber resilience, it’s important to note that they are not immune to threats, as many industries become increasingly concerned about how their data will reach its destination without being compromised. The right mitigation strategies need to be in place, including encryption and redundancy, and when combined with cybersecurity awareness and culture, will enhance the security capabilities of satellite IoT connectivity. This will be a key market differentiator as we move into 2026.
Advanced tracking solutions, such as Assured Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (APNT) and quantum inertial navigation, will also become increasingly important, complementing flexible connectivity solutions when it comes to combating evolving threats related to drones and robotic technology. Jamming and spoofing attacks have driven redesigns of security blueprints, with APNT systems becoming a core security component.
Diversity increases as next-gen technology adoption grows
Higher-bandwidth modules, such as Iridium Messaging Transport (IMT), will see an increase in adoption rates, enabling larger payloads and more frequent updates for richer telemetry. This was also agreed by 45% of those we surveyed. Such high-bandwidth modules are often smaller, lighter, and more power-efficient, which strengthens their appeal, and we expect to see increased migration to these modules over time.
Rather than phasing out ‘legacy’ technologies any time soon, higher-bandwidth modules will add greater diversity for users, with airtime plans able to be further customised and tailored to their needs.
While established services will continue to play an important role, it is likely that a three-tier structure will begin to emerge over the next 12 months, leading to even more diverse use cases. The tiers will most likely look like this:
- Next-generation services – for example, Iridium Certus 100 and Viasat IoT Nano
- Standards-based NTN services – such as Viasat NB-NTN and Iridium NTN Direct
- Current-generation services – including Iridium Short Burst Data
For most organisations, the immediate future will require combining services across tiers to meet specific needs. However, it is important that every company approaches the introduction of new technology carefully and with due consideration. A practical approach is to map applications by required message size, update frequency, power budget, and regulatory and security requirements, then select the correct tier to meet them.
Jeff Bezos and other new kids on the block reshape the market
Household names such as Amazon Kuiper, AST SpaceMobile, and SpaceX’s Starlink will drive down costs, presenting a real challenge to traditional GEO models. These new entrants are networks designed to deliver high-speed broadband at scale, targeting the consumer market – think connected vehicles and home internet. Four in ten (40%) of respondents highlighted new constellations entering the market as a major driving force next year.
While their direct relevance to IoT will likely remain limited for some time, their arrival is creating overcapacity in satellite broadband, increasing financial pressure across the entire sector. This market saturation is likely to intensify towards the end of 2026, as the industry undergoes a major reshaping.
These constellations may have a huge influence on the wider connectivity landscape, but they are not yet deployed optimally for IoT operations that require predictability, reliability, and truly global coverage. It is important that the industry continues to focus on its expertise in providing proven, specialised satellite services for IoT deployments, while keeping a close eye on how the market evolves.
The influence of standards-based IoT continues to grow
Technologies such as NTN NB-IoT allow devices to connect directly to satellites using a single SIM and existing cellular standards. This is resulting in significant reductions in engineering effort and hardware complexity. The end result is that satellite connectivity becomes more accessible and simpler to deploy, as agreed by 35% of our peers.
The year ahead will see many regional trials of NTN NB-IoT take place, and the challenges of developing and rolling out this standards-based technology will become clearer. The hype will likely die down next year, making way for deeper, more focused engineering work to address these challenges.
One thing is clear: next year will be an important step in shaping how quickly, and in which areas, standards-based IoT gains traction moving forward.
AI becomes a key selling point, making data richer and more valuable
Simply collecting telemetry is no longer enough; companies must now deliver smarter analytics, predictive capabilities, and autonomous decision-making to remain competitive and provide greater value to their customers. Nearly a quarter (24%) of satellite IoT professionals said they expect to see AI having short-term influence, though its importance is expected to grow.
I expect AI to drive forward many evolutions in IoT data insights. Firstly, the quality of data will matter more than ever next year and beyond. Basic, flat reports will no longer suffice. Instead, far richer contextual data and AI-enabled, actionable recommendations will be required.
Secondly, IoT system architecture will become more strategic, with increased investment across edge compute, data pipelines, telemetry frameworks, and orchestration layers.
Thirdly, IoT data will become a competitive battleground. As more organisations adopt AI, those that own higher-quality datasets and operate more sophisticated connectivity models capable of producing rich data will lead the pack.
Overall, the deployment and business case for AI will evolve again next year in line with market demands.
Preparing for evolution
Significant change will grip the satellite IoT industry, driven by external forces such as international conflicts, major new players entering the market, AI capabilities, and rapid technological advancements.
However, now is not the time for knee-jerk reactions or chasing short-term growth. Instead, the sector should focus on building resilience and strengthening what it already does best, while embracing diversity in connectivity solutions and exploiting the opportunities AI presents.
Those that treat resilience, migration planning, and data discipline as strategic priorities, not engineering afterthoughts, will be best placed to navigate future evolutions and thrive
