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Kagan: Why Verizon, T-Mobile US, AT&T struggle as 5G grows

Why are the three major wireless carriers struggling with losses instead of showing growth? Verizon Wireless, T-Mobile and AT&T Mobility have shown rapid and consistent growth over decades. Today, 5G represents a significant growth opportunity. Why then are these wireless carriers struggling with losses? And when will they start to grow once again?

There may be several reasons for this struggle. One may be the most damaging. However, there is a solution to this problem. A solution every wireless carrier needs to focus on going forward. So, let’s take a closer look at the problem and the solution.

5G wireless is growth opportunity for Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T

Recently, during the most recent earnings season, Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T discussed several items including this issue. You may be surprised at the way the industry sees itself today, the problem it faces, and their plan going forward.

Over the last few years, I have written countless columns about the enormous growth opportunity 5G represents.

We have seen this same growth opportunity several times in the past, as the wireless industry moved forward from analog to digital, then to 2G, 3G, 4G and now to 5G.

Growth has always come to the wireless industry as it remains one of the most important spaces in our economy.

5G will not only modernize wireless, but other industries as well

Back in the 1990’s, the move to digital from analog opened up new growth opportunities.

This time around with 5G, the growth opportunity is even greater. It involves how other industries are starting to focus on wireless and using it to transform companies and industries.

You see, 5G will impact not only the wireless industry, not only the networks, not only smartphone and tablet makers, but will also impact many other industries going forward.

We see how automated driving is impacting the automotive industry. We see how telehealth is impacting the medical and health care industries.

I regularly get briefed by many companies in industries and the moves they are making are exciting indeed.

The world will look very different a decade from today. Just as it looks very different from a decade ago. Wireless, 5G, AI, IoT, the cloud, VR, AR and so much more are continually changing our world.

In fact, going forward, industry after industry will use 5G to modernize their space and challenge all competitors to change and accelerate.

Going forward, wireless is the center of the universe

If we look forward, the next ten years will be one of the brightest the wireless industry has ever seen.

If all that is true, then why are the nation’s largest wireless networks struggling with losses in their stock price?

Perhaps the marketplace simply does not yet realize the incredible growth potential the wireless industry represents.

Perhaps investors don’t yet understand how 5G will transform industry after industry.

Perhaps carriers need to spend on upgrade before they can see increase in usage.

5G PR has wireless industry stretched out far beyond own headlights

There are many reasons. However, I think the wireless industry got way out ahead of its own headlights with all their 5G claims in an effort to be seen as first-to-market.

There are so many different reasons, and they all play a role. However, I believe the problem is that the wireless industry thinks the marketplace will just follow them blindly like they did ten, twenty and thirty years ago.

Public relations is important. However, PR needs to adapt as time passes.

Things have changed since that time. The marketplace has matured. Investors, customers, workers have all grown up as the wireless industry has matured.

However, the approach the wireless industry is taking is a decade old or worse. Getting way out ahead of their own headlights is actually insulting to investors, users, workers and others.

Investors need to fully understand 5G wireless before they invest

Today, the marketplace needs to understand before they invest.

So, while 5G is an enormous growth opportunity, there is quite a bit of speculation about why the wireless carriers are struggling on the investment side.

Whatever the reason for the disfunction today, understand how 5G wireless will transform our lives in new and exciting ways. It will empower other companies and other industries to jump in as well.

The 5G wireless growth opportunity is real and will happen.

The only question is when. And investors need to understand the next few years. And unfortunately, that is not what the carriers are explaining very well.

How wireless industry solved similar problem a decade ago

The wireless industry faced a similar dilemma more than a decade ago.

Remember when the first iPhone and Android hit the marketplace? That was expected to unleash rapid growth in wireless data services, but nothing happened.

Carriers were making an enormous investment at the time with no results from the marketplace.

That dud needed a solution and fast. The wireless industry thought through a way to jump start growth.

So, the wireless carriers, AT&T, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile shifted gears and started offering very low cost and even free access to wireless data services.

They did this to temp users to try it. To help jump-start the wireless data section of the industry.

Over the next couple years, more users started testing it out and wireless data growth got stronger.

And that was back in the days when apps and wireless data were simply gadgets or toys, and nothing serious yet.

Wireless industry can recover over 5G

Over time, the wireless industry tweaked their offerings and got the users hooked. Then they started charging more for this access and it stuck.

The process took a few years, but growth started and has been happening ever since.

Perhaps, the same kind of solution could be worked out this time as well.

The carriers need to think creatively. 5G is real. It will change the wireless industry.

In fact, it will also change other industries and other companies as well over the next decade and beyond as we move from 5G to 6G and beyond.

This solution already worked once. So, why not try something similar again? Come on Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T… it is time to get creative once again.

ABOUT AUTHOR

Jeff Kagan
Jeff Kaganhttp://jeffkagan.com
Jeff is a RCR Wireless News Columnist, Industry Analyst, Key Opinion Leader and Influencer. He shares his colorful perspectives and opinions on the companies and technologies that are transforming the industry he has followed for 35 years. Jeff follows wireless, wire line telecom, Internet, Pay-TV, cable TV, AI, IoT, Digital Healthcare, Cloud, Mobile Pay, Smart cities, Smart Homes and more.