Reader Forum: 2011 mobile industry predictions

Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly Reader Forum section. In an attempt to broaden our interaction with our readers we have created this forum for those with something meaningful to say to the wireless industry. We want to keep this as open as possible, but maintain some editorial control so as to keep it free of commercials or attacks. Please send along submissions for this section to our editors at:[email protected]@ardenmedia.com.
We had some interesting stories in 2010 that captured a significant amount of mainstream news: Apple Inc.’s iPad and iPhone 4 launches, “antenna-gate,” and stressed 3G networks. One interesting story is that the United States in 2010 for the first time crossed the one exabyte of mobile IP traffic milestone.
2011 will be the year of execution and growth of a number of initiatives that were started or came into their own in 2010. We, as an industry have now a strong basis in which to move into more IP-centric services, to further mobilize enterprises and consumer outreach. I think there will still be new, news-making innovations and launches that will rock the industry.
My predictions for 2011, again, in no particular order are:
1. Handsets: Android-based handsets will solidify their lead as the No. 2 mobile platform behind Nokia Corp. While Nokia/Symbian will still be No. 1 worldwide, we should see Android eroding that. Apple and Research In Motion Ltd. will also increase their worldwide market share vying for No. 3 and No. 4. Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Mobile will do well, but remain in No. 5.
2. Mobile payment solutions will be rolled out to reach hundreds of millions of subscribers, worldwide, but there will continue to be fragmentation in the solutions – from near-field communication-based solutions (e.g. Isis), to SMS and application-based solutions to browser-based solutions, depending on where one is in the global marketplace.
3. Alternative operators (e.g. NUVOs) will play an ever-increasing role in the North American P2P messaging and voice ecosystem with one or more in the United States moving into the top 10 in terms of “operator messaging traffic.” These operators will be viewed as leaders in extending messaging to multiple screens as well as leading convergence of other IP services. Finally, several well-known mobile operators will embrace and partner with these new messaging.
4. Facebook’s integrated “Social-Inbox” concept will spawn other ideas that will spread outside of Facebook and integrate additional types of messaging communities. Some of the alternative operators will take this concept to new levels of usability for smartphones and other connected devices such as tablets.
5. Enterprises and brands will continue to turn to mobile and social networks as preferred ways to reach employees and consumers. As smart phones continue to grow market share, we’ll see more usage of advanced technologies such as IP-based push notifications, apps, HTML5, and browser-based capabilities. SMS will still be a key mobile channel, coexisting with these newer channels, around the world.
6. Mobile customer relationship management (mCRM) will become commonplace with coupons, discounts, and incentive programs at the forefront of enterprise mobile services.
7. P2P SMS and MMS will continue to show growth, although like in 2010, at an overall slower pace. Emerging economies will be the biggest P2P messaging growth markets. Voice and SMS will continue to be key communications mediums. RCS, having been “rethought” by the GSMA as enabling technology may reemerge around LTE voice … and messaging.
8. Mobile IP networks – especially LTE networks will begin to reach hundreds of millions of subscribers in markets around the world – many with download speeds exceeding 20 megabits per second – rivaling that of fixed broadband providers. While this will help ease some of the bandwidth issues, tiered pricing schedules will become the norm. LTE-enabled mobile handsets will be launched on the Apple, Android and BlackBerry platforms in 2011.
9. Mobile security and privacy will become a major topic in 2011, as a greater number of smart phones are rushed to market, consumers become more security and privacy-savvy, and multiple non-verbal communications channels. IP notifications, SMS/MMS messaging, IM, social networks, browser-based solutions and apps and even geo-location apps all become commonplace. Unfortunately, there will always be those undesirable elements that want to find some way to exploit useful technology.
10. Finally, some quick predictions:
–Apple will launch multiple new iPhones;
–Facebook won’t launch a handset;
–Google Inc. won’t launch anymore handsets;
–Tablets will finally cannibalize netbook sales;
–4G users will use more bandwidth than 3G users ever dreamed of;
–MetroPCS Communications Inc. and Leap Wireless International Inc. again won’t merge;
–India will finally launch mobile number portability;
–NFC point-of-sale terminals will be delayed until at least 2012, opening the door for easier mPayment technology;
–Some reality TV show will launch an app to help viewers interact or participate (“Dancing with the Stars”?);