Word of iPhone shortages stirs pundits: Component shortages or inventory draw-down?

In Apple Inc.’s secretive world, facts are scarce — and speculation is the coin of the realm.
Thus, over the past week, as analysts reported that major Apple stores’ iPhones were out-of-stock in the United States and online shipments delayed by a week, speculation has focused on the cause. Despite the chatter, Apple’s stock hit $159.10 by midday today, up nearly 4% over Friday’s close.
Because Sony Ericsson last month attributed high-tier weakness in its own European sales in the first quarter to component shortages, some analysts have suggested that component shortages could also be affecting Apple.
The other theory making the rounds is that Apple is allowing its stock of current iPhone models to dwindle in anticipation of a refreshed product launch in June. Apple and its American partner, AT&T Mobility, have said that the vendor will introduce a 3G iPhone this year. Pundits suggest that the 3G model will have a modified casing — perhaps to accommodate a larger battery to power the device.
Component shortages would be a bad sign — although likely a temporary situation — for other handset makers as well, if a marquee brand such as Apple is struggling with the issue.
Whether iPhone shortages are a result of external forces or Apple’s own strategy, the potential impact on the company’s sales of the device might be high, according to one analyst. Toni Sacconaghi at Bernstein Research said in a note to investors last week that the current level of out-of-stock iPhones could cost Apple a loss of 20,000 to 40,000 units per week. Sacconaghi is a proponent of the component shortage theory and suggested that a June product refresh would make inventory draw down this early counter-productive.