I’m no prognosticator, nor do I have any special powers that allow me to see into the future. But I am really good at guessing. After laying that all on the table, I would like to provide my general view of the wireless space five years from now.
Beyond the fact that we will all be wearing matching jumpsuits made of a Kevlar/polymer mix that is both wrinkle-free and bullet-proof, I’m guessing the wireless space will look very similar to how it looks today. The carriers that remain – I will get to this later – will still derive most of their revenues from people talking on their phones (though I think there will be a strong increase in revenues from new handset sales as those previously mentioned jumpsuits lack pockets and, as a result, people will be losing their phones like crazy).
Now, back to the carrier situation: I think there will only be four wireless providers left; all of the regional operators and MVNOs either will have been acquired or have gone out of business.
Now, this might be a gross over-estimate, but I assume that the government will want some semblance of competitiveness in the wireless industry.
Of the four carriers that remain, AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless will continue to be the two big players in the traditional space, though both will have become much larger in the telecom and entertainment industries. Likewise, both operators will have become integral parts of their parent companies’ expanding wireless entertainment strategies.
Sprint Nextel will still be around in spirit, but its structure will have been so diluted by the number of partnerships it will have formed that it will look nothing like its current form. T-Mobile USA will continue to operate in the shadow of its larger rivals and will just be rolling out its UMTS network.
The technology wars will still be with us, but instead of the current battle lines around LTE, WiMAX and UMB, all the talk will be about whether carriers are going to launch a TEABA (The End All Be All) network or wait for the TEABA 2 EB update (The End All Be All 2: Electric Boogaloo) which will be even more awesome.
Due to space constraints, these are all the guesses I can reveal at this time, but fear not, more may be on the horizon. Now, if I could only figure out which pocket in my jumpsuit holds my cellphone.
Life in 2013
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