According to Téral Research, Open RAN revenue grew in 2024 — albeit by single digits — contradicting some other firms’ findings
Last week, RCR Wireless News reported that a partnership between Rakuten Symphony and Tejas Networks aiming to accelerate the global expansion of open, interoperable 5G networks could be a boon for Open RAN, which has so far had a disappointing financial showing, according to many analysts. In that story, we cited data from Mobile Experts indicating Open RAN revenue fell by 83% in 2024 compared with 2023.
In response, Stéphane Téral founder and chief analyst at Téral Research, contacted RCR to dispute that picture. (In our defense, Stefan Pongratz, VP of RAN market research at Dell’Oro Group, also noted a decline in the overall RAN market during 2024, calling it the “steepest full-year decline in more than 20 years.”)
But, according to Téral, Open RAN revenue actually grew in 2024 — albeit by single digits — contradicting some of these other findings and suggesting stronger momentum than previously reported. “[This growth was] sustained by AT&T in the driver’s seat with its large rollout, followed by smaller footprints at Deutsche Telekom, Telus and Vodafone. In the meantime, both Rakuten Symphony and Rakuten Mobile also contributed to the growth,” Téral told RCR. He added that AT&T alone “created a big jump that reinvigorated the whole market,” accounting for 30% of total Open RAN revenue in 2024.
Téral noted that these deployments weren’t just trials but live commercial rollouts: Deutsche Telekom with Nokia and Fujitsu in Germany; Telus replacing Huawei gear with Samsung’s Open vRAN (vDU, vCU, O-RU) and BMI’s O-RU; and Vodafone progressing in markets like Romania ahead of a planned pan-European rollout covering 170,000 sites.
He emphasized that, “while at least 100-plus CSPs are testing Open RAN worldwide, more than 20 are in the commercial rollout stage worldwide.” He did, however, outline three main challenges hindering broader adoption:
- Feature parity: Many CSPs still doubt Open RAN’s ability to match traditional RAN performance in urban areas, though operators like Vodafone report achieving or exceeding parity.
- Integration complexity: In disaggregated RAN environments, putting all the components together remains a technical hurdle.
- Security: Despite perceptions, only “4% of the threats are unique to Open RAN,” and Rakuten Mobile and the U.S. Department of Defense note that Open RAN’s software-based architecture makes it easier to isolate and patch vulnerabilities quickly.
Another key point, Téral said, is that “95% of global rollouts are Open virtual RAN (vRAN) with RAN functions running on software as virtual machines.”
Looking ahead, Téral sees Open RAN at a tipping point: “We are entering a phase of steady mainstream adoption, and the market should at least double in size this year, fueled by new deals that will add to the ongoing activity led by AT&T and the other Tier 1 CSPs. 2024 saw a robust RFI [Request for Information] and RFP [Request for Proposal] activity, driven by Tier 1 brownfield CSPs, [so] deals are being done.”
He pointed to contract cycles as a catalyst: “We are at the end of the first 5G RAN cycle. More than 100 contracts are up for renewal, and every single RFI/RFP included an Open RAN component… Open RAN is real, performing and moving forward; there is no way back.”
Téral predicts that by 2030, Open RAN will account for 30% of total RAN spending and will be a key element of 6G architectures.
