The past year was an exciting time in the wireless world. Mobile innovations brought us the early days of wearable devices and the beginnings of the connected home. Apple and Samsung continued to push the size limits of mobile devices. Mobile consolidation efforts continued with Softbank/Sprint and T-Mobile US brought us pricing battles. The coming year has the earmarks for more monumental shifts in the mobile landscape.
Overall, expect more focus on network function virtualization in enterprise and mobile networks, edge and cloud services, and software-defined networking to drive network transformation as the industry moves from capital expenses to operating expenses. Big data will grow as enterprise IT vendors and mobile carriers alike leverage data analysis for localization content, context and services for advertising and brand loyalty. There will be continued focus on data security for data center services, as well as in the enterprise and at home. Mobile network evolution to LTE and beyond continues, especially as wearables and the growth of the “Internet of Things” make the case for improved use of higher spectrum for last-mile access to enhance our quest for an “always-on” experience.
Mobile macro networks will see opex spend match capex spend by year’s end
Network infrastructure spending is expected to be flat, but thanks to the rise of cloud services over the last few years, 2015 will mark the year that opex overtakes capex and never looks back. Even Deutsche Bank is eyeing this trend, as both carrier and enterprise IT is looking to cloud, software as a service, subscriptions and service contracts to make up the majority of spending in the year ahead.
Expect small cells and software to dominate network build-out to handle need for mobile capacity
Flat macro-cellular spending means the shift is going to be on small cell build outs and services rather than the traditional macro-focused infrastructure spending we’ve seen in the past. Carriers will be looking for ways to enhance coverage in high-density areas using small cell networks. Expect to see in-building coverage and capacity to be the new battleground for mobile carriers by years end.
BYOD and DIY mobile in the enterprise is properly diagnosed
Businesses realize that “bring-your-own-device” is a misdiagnosis of a larger problem when trying to solve in-building mobility issues and security concerns. Originally trumpeted as a smart fiscal move, CIOs and CFOs will begin to realize that without the relationships and economies of scale, their employees will be treated like regular consumers, and that is a disadvantage. CIOs will realize that while corporate IT teams are security savvy, they are not mobility experts and will need to lean on mobile operators to fix mobility problems. For enterprises, corporate-owned and personally enabled devices with secure application containers become the preferred methods to deal with mobility, security and cost-containment by corporate IT, CIOs and professionals alike.
Connected devices, peripherals and smart buildings become a strong trend in the enterprise
The expected increase in wearable and connected devices, due in part by significantly lower prices as companies fight for adoption, will add a significant strain on the already-strained enterprise Wi-Fi networks, creating opportunities for 3G/4G in-building mobility solutions and services from mobile operators and computing partners. Within the next two years, wireless and mobile traffic demands inside the enterprise will double. This means IT departments will need help to better cope with dynamic capacity demands while focusing on security. Simply banning nonessential devices is not a move that works as early adopters always find work-around methods. Rather, the savvy enterprise IT team will look for ways to prioritize application usage and cloud-source a large majority of network functions.
Expect network vendor consolidation in unexpected places
Expect fixed-mobile consolidation to continue. Look for Nokia Networks to expand by acquiring a core routing company; Amdocs to expand beyond software and billing services by acquiring a mobile hardware company; and finally we will see Oracle’s new management take the further step into mobile by buying a hardware company.
The Silicon Valley big surprise in 2015? A space odyssey
Google acquires a space company to compete with SpaceX and Virgin Galactic for space travel and exploration. Will passengers receive complimentary Google Glass devices?
Beyond 2015 predictions
Beyond 2015: Gigabit consumption becomes the norm
100-gigabit mobile family usage plans and Ethernet-to-the-home to become the norm. By the end of 2015, individual usage will start to reach 2 gigabytes on average and 3 to 5 GB for the top 10%. By 2018, when you hear 100 GB pricing plans, you won’t blink an eye.
ETTH will be favored over fiber-to-the-home in major metropolitan areas. ETTH not only addresses the growing bandwidth demands of the consumer, but it better favors business deployments making it a more cost-effective way to bring a big pipe to over 75% of highly populated areas. This broad coverage translates to around 10% of all deployment areas giving carriers a one-two punch on both consumer and enterprise deployments.
Beyond 2015: Consumers and businesses drive demand for soft-SIM IP phones
Apple SIM is just the tip of the iceberg for both consumer and business mobile customers looking for flexibility in selecting a mobile service provider based on best service, costs, location (city or country) or handset. Carriers and original-equipment manufacturers that successfully meet the demands of the customer will succeed the most, but this also provides opportunities for innovative developers looking to work in the telecom marketplace.
Beyond 2015: 5G is defined by service level by 2018
Unlike the previous mobile telephony generations that were defined by technology, 5G officially is defined by service levels. Expect 5G to not be about the airlink or access method, speed or spectrum, rather it will be about service level and quality of service.
Ronny Haraldsvik is SVP/CMO of SpiderCloud Wireless and an industry veteran for over 25 years.
Editor’s Note: With 2015 now upon us, RCR Wireless News has gathered predictions from leading industry analysts and executives on what they expect to see in the new year.
