Opinion

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Telecom analyst prediction pieces often seem to walk a fine line between, “I think this is going to happen” and “I hope this is going to happen.” I can’t say that I’m immune from this tendency. I’ll do my best to make it clear which side of that line is driving my thinking in terms of the themes I’m looking for in 2012.

As mobile data matures in developed markets, we expect several significant evolutions in 2012. The biggest for subscribers will be pricing plan innovations, providing new personalized service and cost options. In addition, we forecast rapid cloud service adoption, new content business models and new device segmentation.

Recently, a lot of people have been asking me: “Will small cells be the end of the macro network?” No way. Small cell growth will be explosive, to match the need for higher data capacity in mobile networks … but the macro layer is still the best way to handle about half of the anticipated traffic on future networks.

I try to not feel sorry for huge, multi-national conglomerates. This is due mostly to the fact that they always seem to forget my birthday, unless they want me to buy something.

Mobile connectivity for objects and devices is growing enormously. Never before have so many devices been able to “talk to each other” like they can today – from mobile hotspots being embedded in cars to a home security system alerting its owners that a tornado is approaching. The machine-to-machine market enables some of the coolest consumer apps to the most critical emergency communications.

The wireless industry has settled on a single interface for 4G networks, LTE. Gone are the holy wars, first pitting GSM against CDMA; then W-CDMA against EV-DO; and finally HSPA/LTE against WiMAX.

As we turn the page into 2012, we believe it is an opportune time to offer our own version of a Top 10 list to take a page out of Mr. Letterman’s playbook.

During the last two years we’ve seen an increase in attacks on smartphones and mobile devices. We’ve run across rootkits, botnets and other malware. Attackers have moved on from simple destructive malware to spyware and malware that makes them money.

One of the biggest stories of 2012 will be whether anyone credibly challenges Apple and Google in mobile phones and the apps, content and services ecosystems that support them. Time is running out for Microsoft and RIM to convert consumers upgrading from featurephones; stealing subscribers away from iOS and Android will be an even more difficult task.

2012 is forecasting to be a pivotal year for regional wireless carriers across the United States. Many of the issues we have been combating for several years will still be plaguing regional carriers, along with new issues that arise every day in this dynamic industry. Several of these issues will reach a crucial turning point for carriers. We begin 2012 with numerous questions and not enough answers.

We expect to see some traction on the TD-LTE front in India in the second half of 2012. Maravedis forecasts that the TD-LTE subscriber base in India will reach 2.25 million by the end of 2012. RIL, a pan-India license holder, is expected to lead the market in terms of the number of TD-LTE subscribers with a 62% market share in 2012.

Although smartphones seem like old news, their impact on the wireless industry is only beginning. In 2012, as these phones become truly mainstream consumer devices, sales volumes and data network traffic will skyrocket, forcing the wireless industry to completely rethink how it designs, sells, deploys and operates wireless services.

This year’s Consumer Electronics Show was big on attendance, but small on news across the wireless space. Sure, there were a number of new devices announced at what is traditionally …

Low-power wireless technologies will gain a foothold in the smartphone: In 2012 over 35% of smartphones will be shipped with dual-mode Bluetooth low energy (also known as Bluetooth Smart Ready). In addition, a third major phone brand will incorporate ANT, with this in mind, over 10 million ANT+ enabled phones will be shipped in 2012.

Revenue for wireless voice and data has flattened. Carrier revenue will be generated ever-increasingly in two ways: by extended LTE, Ethernet and small-cell networks that capture as many users as possible; and through reduced operations costs. This streamlining of operations costs will be pushed down the wireless infrastructure industry ecosystem to companies which build the networks: manufacturers, AC&E firms, and installation companies. These companies will need to do more within tighter timelines and with fewer resources.

The nearing maturity of mobile voice services in most Latin American countries and the reduction on mobile termination rates set by regulators are leading to three main trends in the region: the launch of unlimited plans; the search for new revenue streams; and the commercial launch of multiple-play offerings.

2011 was a transitional year for the mobile space as consumers began to look at their wireless devices more as a connection to the Internet than as simply a phone. …

In 2011, MEF accurately forecast that the proliferation of smartphones would drive mobile consumer engagement with a number of other predictions also coming to fruition. MEF’s success in anticipating and addressing key industry issues, combined with its increased representation of the wider mobile content and commerce industry, place it in a strong position to forecast the top mobile industry trends for 2012.

If the recent holiday shopping season showed us anything it’s that what the Internet began – with the ability to offer up every imaginable toy and product, all from the comfort of your armchair (and with free shipping to boot) – the smartphone has taken to the next level. The undeniable trend from the 2011 holiday season is that smartphone scanning will become pervasive.

If I were to take anything from this week’s Consumer Electronics Show as an indicator of what to expect in 2012, that would be that there a lot of people interested in gadgets and that we can expect to be standing in more lines.

The most user-friendly ways for humans to interact with machines often center on something that every person is born with. One of the best-known recent examples is how smartphones quickly shed the stylus in favor of touch.