ORLANDO, Fla.-Carriers in the Asia-Pacific are beginning to re-evaluate their choice of digital technology, opening a new door for Interim Standard-136 Time Division Multiple Access in the region, said officials and members of the Universal Wireless Communications Consortium last week.
The group held a press conference to release its latest TDMA subscriber figures and projections for South America, the region that together with North America includes most of TDMA’s nearly 14 million subscribers worldwide. South America had 2.7 million TDMA subscribers as of year-end 1997, a figure that jumped to 4.9 million as of July 1-an 81-percent increase, according to UWCC. The group projects 6 million subscribers by the end of this year, with a forecasted 17.3 million South American users by year-end 2002.
North America had 4 million TDMA subscribers as of the end of 1997 and 6.1 million as of July 1, said the UWCC. Year-end North American figures are projected at 8.5 million, with 42.2 million by the end of 2002. Worldwide, UWCC projects 115 million users by year-end 2002.
The markets of North America and South America, where Advanced Mobile Phone Service is the de facto analog standard, always have been a stronghold for TDMA. But elsewhere, advancement of the TDMA standard has been comparatively weak.
In Asia, there are pockets of TDMA, including Hong Kong Telecom CSL’s network in Hong Kong. But outside of Japan, where the Japanese-proprietary Personal Digital Cellular standard predominates, Global System for Mobile communications is the dominant digital standard in the region. Code Division Multiple Access has a significant presence as well, most notably in South Korea.
To reach the worldwide TDMA subscriber figures it is projecting, UWCC recognizes it needs to focus more attention on the Asia-Pacific region. The current economic situation there, along with the turmoil over third-generation cellular standards, is causing carriers to take another look at their plans for digital, according to UWCC. This, say TDMA proponents, is creating a new window of opportunity.
“I think one of the things we’re seeing … with the environment in Asia, is a lot of people are re-evaluating their decisions [about digital],” said Gregory Williams, UWCC chairman and vice president of wireless systems for SBC Technology Resources Inc., Austin, Texas. “We see opportunities in Asia that weren’t as clear six months ago. We’re more optimistic today than in the past” about the potential for TDMA in the region.
Clearly, China is on everyone’s mind; the potential there is mind-boggling. Currently, however, GSM is the predominant digital standard, with most of the subscriber numbers being brought in by dominant China Telecom. The cdmaOne (Interim Standard-95) standard, however, is present in experimental systems. TDMA currently is not a factor in the country.
“Obviously, China is a market that we need to focus on more,” said Chris Pearson, UWCC director of marketing. “If the opportunity isn’t there on the mobile side, it will be there on the fixed wireless side.”
Yet Dominique Jodoin, vice president of Ericsson Radio Systems A.B., does believe there may be an opportunity for TDMA on the mobile side in China.
While attention had been focused on cdmaOne as an alternate digital standard, said Jodoin, “we’re seeing a swinging of the pendulum.”
Now “CDMA has a ‘W’ in front of it” in China, he said, meaning TDMA may be of interest, rather than cdmaOne, which wouldn’t have a migratory path to W-CDMA.
Elsewhere in the region, Jodoin emphasized TDMA still is being considered by Telstra Corp. in Australia, despite reports to the contrary that stated Telstra already had selected cdmaOne. “At the end of the day, it’s really a 50/50 chance.”
In Taiwan, Jodoin is hopeful that Chungwa, partially owned by AT&T Corp., will opt for TDMA. And in Malaysia, Mobikom is a strong supporter of TDMA. “We’ve received interest from most of the Asian markets for TDMA,” he said.
Jodoin projects that 25 percent to 33 percent of future growth for TDMA will come from the Asia-Pacific region, but that the real bread and butter for TDMA will remain with the Americas.
To reach its growth projections for TDMA, it will be important for UWCC to develop a stronger presence in the industry.
UWCC has been conspicuously quiet since it was formed in 1996, compared with the high-profile lobbying and media campaigns of the CDMA Development Group and the North American GSM Alliance L.L.C. “We probably are the quiet group a little more than we should be,” acknowledged Williams.
“Perhaps we were naive … We have spent serious time getting an [air interface] submission” for the IMT-2000 selection, he explained. “We thought we’ll put one in, and life will be OK. [But] all of a sudden the marketplace … was being inundated with misinformation.”
UWCC since has hired an outside attorney and a lobbyist to make the views of TDMA advocates heard. Williams said the group is increasing its budget and that, for the short-term, “major IS-136 members have agreed to contribute more.”
The position UWCC wants to get across with its new efforts is that it supports the concept of a family of standards, said Williams. “We believe in multiple technologies [and] we believe that countries should not restrict the technologies to be used in any given spectrum. We believe that backward compatibility is very important to our customers.”
