As the onset of narrowband personal communications services nears, the industry is abuzz about what promises to be the next wave of wireless wonder. But for many narrowband providers-to-be, it is only a natural extension of one-way paging.
Two camps have emerged among advanced messaging providers, according to Roberta Wiggins, director of wireless/mobile communications for Boston-based Yankee Group. Paging giants Paging Network Inc. and Mobile Telecommunication Technologies Corp. acquired enough bandwidth that they have “nothing to lose and everything to gain,” remarked Wiggins. The companies’ networks and messaging features are extensive.
Dorothy Salmon, a paging analyst at Washington, D.C.-based Economic and Management Consultants International Inc., agrees. Some are “going all out,” said Salmon, while “others have this wait and see attitude.”
Developing beyond the beepers from which they evolved, new paging devices feature voice and two-way data and capabilities, high-speed transmission, frequency reuse and connections to computer on-line information services and e-mail messaging. Several providers also are developing customized response functions.
The fast track
As expected, Motorola Inc. is blazing the narrowband trail with its FLEX family of protocols. Most providers are either testing or already have announced plans to deploy ReFLEX-based systems, the first being Mtel’s SkyTel Corp. subsidiary. Both PageNet and PageMart Inc. are designing voice paging products based on InFLEXion technology.
Now an open standard, FLEX is destined to become the new “de facto standard” for paging, according to Motorola. Wiggins and Salmon agree, noting Motorola’s current industry foothold combined with the lack of any formally announced competing protocol makes it inevitable. “The industry wants a standard as we integrate data with computers,” added Wiggins.
FLEX transmits one-way at 6,400 bits per second, faster than prevalent standards POCSAG, which transmits at 2,400 bps, and ERMES, the European standard operating at 6,250 bps. According to a report by London-based CIT Research Ltd., ERMES is faring poorly against FLEX, which has been widely adopted in the Asia-Pacific region.
FLEX is the foundation for ReFLEX 25, ReFLEX 50 and InFLEXion, transmitting outbound at 6,400 bps, 26,500 bps and 112,000 bps, respectively. ReFLEX 25 operates on a 25 kHz channel; ReFLEX 50 and InFLEXion use 50 kHz.
The ReFLEX protocols support message acknowledgement, menu-based response and downloading of data to computers. Using ReFLEX 50 technology, SkyTel plans to be first to activate its narrowband network. San Jose, Calif.-based Wireless Access Inc. intends to produce and offer ReFLEX 50-based units in conjunction with SkyTel’s network.
Further, ReFLEX 50 and InFLEXion achieve monetary efficiencies by reusing frequency. Traditionally, pagers have received messages via broadcast. Searching for a signal, however, drains the battery. Pagers supported by ReFLEX are notified by a region of transmitters and InFLEXion-based pagers are signalled directly by one transmitter.
Lying low
Sharply contrasting the expressive plans of PageNet and SkyTel are several firms holding their cards close to their chests. Dallas-based AirTouch Paging is examining market conditions, consumer demand and how best its two-way services will complement existing one-way paging, cellular and future broadband PCS services, explained Susan Rosenberg, a corporate spokeswoman. Likewise, Jackson, Miss.-based MobileComm, the paging operational subsidiary of BellSouth Corp., said it will invest great amounts of capital researching the market climate and deploying the network before starting up service. Many are waiting to watch the “other guy” make the first move.
The diversity among service features and marketing approaches results from a number of factors. Salmon believes companies first will target their strongest current markets with which they’re most comfortable, be it business users or consumers. These user’s needs also will vary.
And while one-way users indicate a desire for more extensive messaging, faster transmission speeds and value-added features, the overwhelming opinion is that the fundamental value of paging or advanced messaging-when compared to other wireless services-lies in its simplicity, ease-of-use, coverage and low per-unit and use costs.
As such, licensees are seeking the optimal balance between meeting demand for innovative features without overextending the inherent benefits of the medium.
Most companies won’t yet reveal their pricing plans. However, data derived from focus groups conducted by EMCI indicate the cost of two-way services should not exceed $10 more than the current per-month cost of one-way service, said Salmon. Wiggins believes demand will drop off starting at a 30 percent increase from one-way service.
Down a different path
No doubt Motorola is still top dog in paging, but one company intends to cut its long-time industry leash.
AT&T Corp.’s Wireless Services’ messaging division will launch narrowband PCS next year using its own, open-standards based advanced messaging protocol, said Theresa Roberts, group marketing manager for the division.
Seeking “the freedom to develop products for our customers, the way they want them, when they want them,” prompted AT&T to devise its own protocol, said AT&T’s Ken Arneson, vice president of business development.
The protocol will support a message acknowledgement capability and enable menu-based responses. AT&T also is engineering an initiate response capability that Arneson expects to be available when the network launches next year. In addition, AT&T is considering a voice paging function.
Arneson declined comment on the protocol’s specific speed and technical capabilities, but assured it will offer a formidable contest for Motorola’s most progressive technologies.
Unlike ReFLEX and InFLEXion asymmetric protocols, AT&T’s protocol will be symmetric, noted Roberts, allowing equal amounts of data to be transmitted outbound and inbound. AT&T plans to beta test its network fourth quarter, said Arneson, and begin service with a “pervasive footprint” in 1996.
Looking ahead
Thoughts vary on the future of one-way paging in the United States. Salmon maintains many current one-way users will upgrade to two-way paging, but the low price of one-way paging will guarantee an ongoing market.
Wiggins contends, “Two-way will cannibalize the one-way market, particularly alpha (alphanumeric) users,” she claims, “who are most aware of the added value of a response call.”
One two-way market where Wiggins perceives much opportunity-which has received scarce mention-isn’t businesspeople nor any curious ilk of consumers, but machines. Machine-to-machine communications presently account for less than 1 percent of messaging communications, according to Wiggins. Telemetry, or the measuring and monitoring of a unit’s qualities such as pressure, speed or temperature, could be more cost-effective by way of two-way paging.
Open standards-based technologies will continue to be popular, as evidenced in Motorola’s and AT&T’s protocols. Glenayre Technologies Inc. and Motorola also announced they have agreed to standardize some key interface points in their infrastructure equipment.
