Dell’Oro estimates 6G-related RAN capex will represent 55–60% of total RAN investments between 2029 and 2034
In sum – what to know:
6G capex – Dell’Oro expects major RAN investments starting late in the decade, led by Massive MIMO deployments across Sub-7GHz and cmWave spectrum.
Flat RAN market ahead – Global RAN revenues have risen only 1% annually since 2000, and inflation-adjusted growth remains negative, signaling stagnation through 2035.
6G to dominate future capex – Between 2029 and 2034, 6G-related deployments are projected to account for 55–60% of total RAN investments.
The radio access network (RAN) market shows limited long-term growth potential, with global revenues expanding at just 1% CAGR since 2000 in nominal terms — and declining once adjusted for inflation, according to Dell’Oro Group’s latest 6G advanced research report,
The report forecasts that RAN spending will remain broadly flat through 2035, with a 6G capital expenditure ramp beginning around 2030.
“The RAN market has been flat over the past twenty-five years. The primary reason we expect RAN to remain flat is that the operators are in a good position from a capacity perspective and there are limited catalysts to change the MBB growth narrative, which is allowing the carriers to continue improving their wireless capital intensity ratios,” Stefan Pongratz, vice president of RAN and telecom capex research at Dell’Oro Group, told RCR Wireless News.
The report noted that this investment cycle will be led by Massive MIMO systems in the Sub-7GHz and centimeter-wave bands, primarily leveraging existing macro infrastructure.
Depending on data traffic trends and enterprise adoption of private wireless and fixed wireless access (FWA), RAN’s outlook could range from stable to mildly optimistic, the report stated.
It also estimates 6G-related RAN capex will represent 55–60% of total RAN investments between 2029 and 2034.
“Obviously there is a lot of work left before operators can start deploying 6G at scale in the 6.4 GHz+ range leveraging the existing macro grid. But if there are delays with 6G, it will likely be more driven by the market than the technology not being ready,” Pongratz added.
A previous report by Dell’Oro stated that the RAN market had showed signs of recovery in the second quarter of 2025.
After two years of contraction, early estimates suggest that global RAN revenues — covering baseband, radio hardware, and software (but excluding services) — rose for the third straight quarter outside of China, Dell’Oro said.
The Dell’Oro’s 2Q25 RAN report also highlighted that growth in Europe and the Middle East and Africa nearly balanced out downturns in Latin America and Asia Pacific.
