How does Ookla expect networks to evolve in 2026 to support new applications, devices, and usage patterns?
RCR Wireless News spoke with Kerry Baker, who leads Ookla’s research and content efforts in North America, to learn more about how networks are expected to evolve in 2026 to support new applications, devices, and usage patterns — and how operators should respond.
Uplink becomes strategically important (not just downlink)
According to Baker, by 2026, uplink performance will matter far more than it has historically, driven by AI-centric use cases like voice-based agents, content creation, live streaming, and interactive workloads. Both mobile (5G SA, higher-order MIMO, carrier aggregation) and fixed networks (mid-split and high-split cable upgrades) are reallocating capacity toward uplink. Latency — not just throughput — increasingly defines whether AI interactions feel usable or frustrating
AI traffic growth is real — but highly uncertain
The interview highlights deep uncertainty around how AI actually changes traffic patterns. While vendors forecast massive (100×) traffic growth, agentic AI could reduce bandwidth demand by shifting interactions away from video-heavy human interfaces toward machine-to-machine exchanges. The industry still lacks clarity on whether AI creates net-new traffic or simply reshapes it
Baker explained: When users experiment with AI in lighthearted ways — like adding Godzilla to a friend’s photo — it creates traffic that didn’t previously exist. But that raises a broader question: Is AI generating net-new traffic, or simply substituting one type of usage for another? “Like if I’m doing that, then I’m not watching cat videos or whatever,” he said. So, is that really creating new, incremental traffic?
That uncertainty becomes even more pronounced as agentic AI enters the picture. If agents begin acting on users’ behalf — buying groceries, coordinating tasks, or communicating directly with other agents — they may no longer require bandwidth-heavy, human-facing interfaces at all.
Wi-Fi 7’s gains are real but uneven
Wi-Fi 7 delivers measurable improvements in latency, capacity, and reliability, particularly for dense households and small businesses. However, adoption will remain uneven, with many consumers still adequately served by Wi-Fi 6/6E. Multi-Link Operation (MLO) stands out as a key enabler, but only when paired with the right service tier and managed equipment E
Essentially, Wi-Fi 7 is transformative in the right environments — but not universally necessary by 2026.
Spectrum constraints remain mostly invisible — for now
Despite ongoing spectrum debates, Spectrum scarcity is a future risk, not a 2026 crisis, outside of seasonal or localized slowdowns. Baker sees spectrum scarcity as a future risk, not a 2026 crisis. “Are they running out of spectrum? No,” he stated.
Further, he said that advances in spectral efficiency and 5G-Advanced features will continue to offset pressure, though AI-driven future demands remain an open question. “I don’t see this being an issue on the 5G horizon, maybe the 5G-Advanced horizon.”
Network resiliency becomes a primary investment theme
When asked where operators should be investing most in 2026, Baker suggested that the strongest forward-looking signal is a renewed focus on resiliency, redundancy, and failover — across mobile, fixed, and satellite. He cited lessons from cloud outages and extreme weather events, which are pushing carriers to think more like critical-infrastructure providers. “Maybe those techcos need to become more like telcos and become a little more redundant,” he said.
Satellites move from novelty to resilience layer
LEO satellites, D2D connectivity, and satellite-based failover are increasingly positioned as insurance policies for connectivity, not primary access networks. Use cases include disaster recovery, remote coverage, aviation, maritime, and small-business backup — with performance measurement becoming a growing focus. “[Satellites] are providing network resilience… if it went down, the satellite network is there,” said Baker. “And we’re seeing… more competitors [in the space], which is fantastic. We love seeing that,”
