GlobalData’s latest China fixed communication forecast shows fixed voice and fixed broadband lines growing modestly, at CAGRs of 1% and 1.5%, respectively
In sum – what to know:
Slow fixed services revenue growth – Declining ARPU across voice and broadband services limits market expansion despite steady line growth.
Fiber to reach 100% FTTH by 2030 – Government-backed fiber rollout keeps China among the world’s highest fiber-penetration markets.
China Mobile strengthens its lead – The carrier’s FTTH scale and adoption of 10G PON and AI tools are helping it sustain performance and customer satisfaction.
China’s fixed communications market is set for minimal growth over the next five years, with total service revenue rising at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 0.7% — from $303 billion in 2025 to $314 billion in 2030 — according to new figures from GlobalData.
The weak outlook is mainly driven by declining average revenue per user (ARPU).
GlobalData’s latest China fixed communication forecast for the third quarter of the year showed fixed voice and fixed broadband lines growing modestly, at CAGRs of 1% and 1.5%, respectively. However, sharp reductions in ARPU for both services will weigh on overall market revenue.
Residential fixed voice ARPU is expected to drop from $5.07 to $4.35 between 2025 and 2030 as mobile and internet-based communications continue to replace traditional telephony. Residential broadband ARPU is also forecast to fall — from $31.10 to $29.53 — due to aggressive discounting by operators.
Pradeepthi Kantipudi, telecom analyst at GlobalData noted that fiber will continue to dominate broadband subscriptions throughout the forecast period. The report also highlighted that government-backed expansion of fiber networks has pushed FTTH penetration to roughly 99% of home broadband lines in 2025, with full nationwide coverage expected by 2030.
China Mobile will remain the country’s largest fixed broadband provider in 2025, followed by China Telecom and China Unicom. China Mobile is expected to retain its leadership through 2030, supported by its strong FTTH footprint and continued upgrades to gigabit broadband. The operator’s integration of AI-enhanced network tools and 10G PON deployments has further improved service performance and user satisfaction, GlobalData added.
“China’s telecom operators are turning to new generation fiber networks as a strategic tool to stabilize and eventually grow ARPU amid market saturation and intense price competition. With fiber upgrades enabling multi-gigabit speeds and ultra-low latency, telcos can introduce premium broadband tiers, smart home bundles and enterprise grade digital solutions that enhance user satisfaction and create opportunities for tiered pricing and bundled services that lift overall revenue per household,” the analyst told RCR Wireless News.
