Nine billion cellular smartphone and IoT devices with embedded and integrated SIMs (eSIMs and iSIMs) will be in the market by 2030, reckons Counterpoint Research. This total will mean nearly 70 percent of all “shipped” cellular-based devices will feature eSIMs, iSIMs, or proprietary equivalents of them. Shipments of eSIM/iSIM devices will grow at a compound annual rate (CAGR) of 22 percent during the five-year period to the end of the decade, it said.
The projection covers eSIM (eUICC), iSIM (iUICC), and also Deutsche Telekom’s nuSIM variant, and the GSMA’s so-called Soft SIM software applications which perform the same SIM functions. The installed base of eSIM/iSIM consumer devices, mostly smartphones, will be around 2.5 billion units by 2030; the rest will be IoT devices, presumably. The surge was sparked by the release of the US-exclusive eSIM-only iPhone in 2022, said the firm.
“The new eSIM-only iPad is another sign indicating that the future is eSIM,” it said, promoting a new forecast report. The eSIM/iSIM market is now “entering a period of hyper growth”, it suggested, as more OEMs launch eSIM devices. “Currently, smartphones have the highest eSIM adoption rate on the consumer side. [But] connected cars, gateways, routers, and drones, where physical SIMs can be difficult to manage, stand to greatly benefit,” it said.
Over 400 operators support eSIM services globally, said Counterpoint Research; iSIM-capable devices will grow at the fastest rate, it added, with shipments rising at a CAGR of 160 percent between 2024 and 2030. “Key ecosystem players have started preparing to deploy eSIM beyond flagship devices into mid-tier segments… Use cases such as travel and roaming will also greatly help in increasing eSIM adoption in the short term.”
Ankit Malhotra, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, said: “These are still very early days for iSIM. However, we expect iSIM adoption to pick up steam in the next three years. The technology has the potential to bring more efficiency to devices by lowering costs, size and complexity. This makes it ideal for use in a wide range of IoT applications, from smart home devices to industrial sensors.”
