Want to know what’s happening, and also what’s about to happen, in telecoms? You could do much worse, and also not much better, than to ask a well-placed test and measurement firm, running the rule over all the latest telecoms technologies from all the biggest telecoms vendors and operators. And you could do hardly any better at all than to get Stephen Douglas, head of market strategy at Spirent, on the blower. Which is what RCR Wireless did, when tasked with assessing the state of the private 5G market, in early 2024, particularly as it interfaces with Industry 4.0.
UK-based Spirent, which has just shaken on a $1.3 billion sale to US counterpart Viavi (expected to close in the second half of 2024), has a close eye on the private networks market, and a burgeoning private-networks business. “It’s a growth area,” says Douglas. “Our traditional 5G business is huge; we’ve got something like 3,100 engagements globally, right across the ecosystem. And that’s continuing. A big part of it is the move to standalone 5G (SA) ; that’s the driver in the 5G space. But private 5G is certainly a growth sector; and it is strategic too.”
He explains: “We are most excited about the ecosystem linkage. It brings us into the enterprise space as well, which opens new opportunities. Because it’s not just about cellular anymore. Enterprises want security, as well; things like enterprise SASE (secure access service edge). So how do you test and validate that? And where Spirent has traditionally tested smartphones on 5G systems, it is now being asked about cameras, for example, requiring a specific quality-of-experience. So the ecosystem is growing [with private 5G]. That’s the trajectory, but it is still early.”
Indeed, such reflection on the private opportunity for Spirent tells as much about the broader shift and progress in this niche subset of the telecoms market – about nascent development, related services, ecosystem building. The point about “ecosystem linkage” can be applied to every telco-side player in the Industry 4.0 equation. It is a good intro as well to Douglas’ view of the state of the private 5G market – to follow in a separate article. But first, he draws on Spirent’s “own customer engagements and independent market analysis” to offer a view of how the market has scaled over the past few years, since spectrum has started to be liberalised for enterprises in certain countries.
Spirent counts “slightly over” 1,200 private LTE or 5G networks globally, excluding China. “There are thousands in China, but they are not necessarily clear-cut private,” says Douglas. Its total is for commercial installations only; “no proofs, no trials,” he says. Which might explain the difference with other counts; although access to data and a propensity for guesswork are explanations, too. (Berg Insight says 2,900, to date; Analysys Mason says 4,000, at the end of 2022; GSA says 1,384 enterprises had engaged in some form with private cellular by this January.)
Douglas says: “It’s a three-year cumulative figure. And it shows the market is still in its infancy.” He also backs his own figures. “We work with all of the major equipment vendors – so we get lots of good insight.” The biggest challenge is to identify whether these enterprise networks are actually based on 5G, in whatever form; or if they are LTE systems, or some hybrid of the two. “Very few vendors share that information,” he says. But the best insight from Spirent is gleaned from the gear on its workbenches. Here are the big five takeaways, as presented by Douglas.
To be continued…
For more from Stephen Douglas and Spirent on this topic, check out the recent RCR Wireless webinar on the state of the private 5G market, and also look out for the editorial report on the same subject at the start of next month (April 2024).
