5G will account for 25% of global mobile traffic this year, according to the latest Ericsson Mobility Report
Ericsson’s newly released Mobility Report takes a look ahead to the height of the 5G era and forecasts that by the end of 2029, 85% of the world’s population will have access to 5G, global 5G subscriptions will surpass 5.3 billion and the average data consumption per smartphone will reach 56 GB per month (up from 21 GB at the end of 2023).
5G is anticipated to become the dominant mobile technology in the year 2028, five years from now. 4G LTE subscriptions are currently at their peak, the report said; they increased 6 million during the third quarter of 2023 and total 5.2 billion. That figure is expected to drop to around 3.2 billion by the end of 2029, as the migration to 5G takes hold more fully.
At the moment, however, “5G deployment is far from complete,” the report acknowledges, saying that global population coverage will reach about 40% by the end of this year. “Further densification of 5G mid-band sites is needed for the full 5G experience,” Ericsson adds. By the end of this year, Ericsson estimates that 5G midband spectrum will be deployed on about 30% of existing (LTE) sites around the world. That’s the view on the macro network, but most traffic is generated indoors; hence Ericsson says there is “a growing need to extend 5G mid-band coverage indoors to ensure a comprehensive 5G experience.”
5G services are currently dominated by enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) broadband, gaming and some augmented reality/virtual reality services, according to the report.
The number of global 5G subscriptions is expected to be 1.6 billion by the end of this year, accounting for 18% of all mobile subscriptions. Regionally, North America leads in terms of 5G subscription penetration, which is expected to be 61% at the close of 2023. Northeast Asia follows at 41%, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries are at 34% and Western Europe has about 25% 5G penetration, Ericsson said. Subscription growth for 5G has been strong in India since the launch of its 5G networks, but it still only has about 11% market penetration.
In terms of legacy technologies, the Mobility Report said that during the third quarter of this year, 3G subscriptions dropped by 61 million, and GSM/EDGE-only connections were down 55 million; other technologies decreased by roughly 2 million.
Data traffic continues its seemingly unstoppable increase, with mobile network data traffic up about 7% between the second and third quarters of 2023 and up 33% from the third quarter of last year. Ericsson said that total global mobile data traffic (not including FWA traffic) will likely reach 130 EB per month by the time 2023 is over. When FWA traffic is included, that number looks more like 160 EB per month. The Mobility Report projects that mobile data traffic without FWA will hit 403 EB per month by 2029, and 563 EB per month when FWA is factored in.
Video traffic is estimated to account for 73% of all mobile data traffic as of the end of this year.
When it comes to devices, the report notes that more than 1,000 5G smartphone models have launched in total, and that 5G-capable phones are expected to account for 62% of shipped smartphone this year, up from 57% last year.
More details in the new Ericsson Mobility Report, available here.
