10 5G predictions for 2023 (Reader Forum)

It sometimes seems like we’ve been talking about 5G forever; yet ask Communications Service Providers (CSPs), vendors and other industry stakeholders, and you’ll hear the same refrain: we’re only at the beginning of this journey. With 5G coverage now blanketing many markets, we’re about to embark on a new phase of telecom transformation. Fully automated industry, ubiquitous private cellular networks, early metaverse experiences and more are all on the menu. Based on our work helping CSPs test and validate new 5G innovations around the globe, here are the top 10 trends we see unfolding in 2023.

1. As the race for 5G coverage begins to plateau, leading CSPs will start focusing on novel monetization use cases.
   By end of 2022, leading CSPs had built out 5G networks enough to cover large populations of subscribers. Yet, with 5G netting few truly “new” customers (rather than displacing existing 4G/LTE subscriptions), Average Revenue per User (ARPU) for most operators has stayed flat. In 2023, CSPs in more mature markets will start aggressively pursuing new revenues. In the consumer space, this push will likely include Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) as a broadband alternative, especially in rural communities. CSPs will also enter the enterprise edge services market, with offerings like AI-enabled video monitoring, Voice over New Radio (VoNR) and collaboration. We should also see early metaverse-related offerings in gaming, Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR).
2. Leading telecoms will dive into densification.
   Most carriers will continue focusing on expanding 5G mid-band macro coverage this year. Some, however, will embark on the next step in their 5G strategy: densifying 5G radio networks to improve capacity and performance. Look to see the first production implementations of small cells and massive MIMO arrays this year.
3. Asia will maintain the lead in 5G deployments — and keep pushing forward.
   Last year, Chinese CSPs raced to extend 5G networks everywhere in China, becoming the world’s de facto 5G accelerator. With this objective largely achieved, India will take the lead in 2023, as carriers look to blanket the country with 5G. Even more interesting: both markets look to make a strong push into the enterprise market this year. Indian carriers are looking grow a strong enterprise private networks business alongside consumer coverage. And Chinese operators are pushing to expand private networks using public 5G for specific enterprise use cases in energy, mining and logistics.
4. Standalone (SA) 5G Core rollouts will move steadily forward.
   Is 2023 the year we start seeing production 5G SA deployments? Yes—though not yet in large numbers. CSPs will gradually ramp up 5G SA adoption this year, but will continue to face headwinds. Challenges include the complexity of multi-vendor and cloud-native 5G SA environments, ongoing performance issues, increased security risks and migration trade-offs to guarantee performance and align with spectrum portfolios.
5. Most operators will prioritize their own Telco Clouds for 5G Core… for now.
   To support next-generation network capabilities, CSPs need to run 5G Core in virtualized cloud environments. A handful of true greenfield operators have chosen to outsource this requirement to public cloud providers, and others may eventually follow. We expect 2023 to be the year many CSPs discover just how hard it is to build and operate multi-vendor environments and start turning to neutral partners for help. For now, most CSPs will continue working with vendors to try to build and run their own Telco Clouds, but the future looks hybrid.
6. Public cloud partnerships will grow for certain workloads.
   Even as operators look inwards for 5G Core cloud capabilities, many will expand their partnerships with hyperscalers around specific workloads in 2023. Look for growth in three key areas. First, Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC), where operators see public cloud as a way to quickly tap into the enterprise edge services market with lower capital investment than building out their own edge clouds. 2023 will also find more CSPs hosting specific Containerized Network Functions (CNFs) in the public cloud, especially around Private Network deployments. Finally, more CSPs will migrate internal IT workloads, such as Operational and Business Support Systems (OSS/BSS), to public cloud this year. 
7. Enterprises will ramp up private network adoption—though not necessarily on 5G.
   Private cellular networks continue to be one of the most intriguing 5G use cases for enterprise customers. After early trials throughout 2022, many enterprises will start implementing production networks this year — though mostly using 4G/LTE technology. Some enterprises will employ 5G Non-standalone (NSA) architectures for specific use cases that will benefit from 5G NR radio features and low latencies. But we likely won’t see 5G SA deployments in large numbers until equipment becomes more available and customer confidence in delivery partners grows.
8. Private 5G for industry kicks off this year.
   The next generation of 5G will offer lower latencies, enhanced power efficiency, Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) radio features and other capabilities to unleash a wave of dynamic Industry 4.0 applications. Look for the first production use cases towards the end of 2023, as 3GPP Release 16-enabled network equipment and devices hit the market.
9. Service providers will push to tame network complexity.
   Opening up telecom environments to new multi-vendor technologies in 5G, cloud, edge and other areas will enable amazing innovation. In the near term, however, it also brings massive operational complexity. Facing pressure to lower costs and become more agile, many CSPs will invest in automating across the network lifecycle in 2023. This push will affect everything from implementing DevOps processes, to building multi-vendor collaboration environments, to moving more of the network to zero-touch, “self-driving” operations. Testing and RFPs in these areas grew throughout 2022, and that trend will continue this year, especially around assurance and OSS functions.
10. Open RAN will continue seeing significant attention, slow adoption.
    Many CSPs conducted Open RAN trials in 2022, and that trend continues this year. However, while CSPs see enormous potential in multi-vendor, plug-and-play RAN environments, actual solutions are still not mature enough for large-scale adoption —especially when it comes to the operational models needed to support them. For now, expect to see more CSPs adopting virtualized RAN solutions from traditional vendors while continuing to test Open RAN in small targeted deployments.