Over the last several decades, competitors in the wireless industry were all on the same path. However, over this last decade we have seen three completely different directions emerge. Let’s take a closer look at networks in the changing industry, what to expect going forward and who the long-term winners will be.
First, the marketplace has changed in recent years. Today, anyone who wants a wireless device already has one. In fact, we all have several when you consider smartphones, tablets, laptops and so on. And that list will only increase with television, appliances, automobiles and more.
That means companies now compete for existing customers between each other as they also try to maintain their own customer base.
Plus, going forward, Verizon Wireless, AT&T Mobility and T-Mobile should not be judged just on how they compete with each other. You see, wireless carriers are heading in three different directions. All compete in wireless and some compete in other sectors and that is growing.
Today, Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile are wireless industry leaders
Today, the top three wireless players are Verizon Wireless, AT&T Mobility and T-Mobile. Sprint is no longer a competitor.
Dish Network was supposed to replace Sprint as number four to get the T-Mobile, Sprint deal done. However, we haven’t heard much of anything from them yet.
After merging with Sprint, T-Mobile is now finally a real competitor. It now has spectrum they always needed.
I expect to see them continue to be aggressive in the competitive playing field for a while with their new size and scope until things start to level off.
T-Mobile recovered from their near-death experience
I respect T-Mobile for their amazing recovery from a near death experience several years ago. John Legere saved the company. With his unorthodox marketing method, he took T-Mobile from the edge of extinction to a real competitor once again.
Now Mike Sievert has taken the reigns and has the task of growing the company to the next level.
With all that said, in the end I still see the industry being led by the same three players, Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile. These are the three wireless heavy hitters. Perhaps Dish will enter the wireless space someday.
Wireless now better, faster, stronger with three strong competitors
The wireless industry once had two strong network competitors, Verizon and AT&T, and two weaker competitors, T-Mobile and Sprint.
Now after the T-Mobile and Sprint merger, there are three strong competitors. As I have been saying for years, that is good for T-Mobile and for the entire wireless industry.
After the merger, T-Mobile is suddenly in a much stronger position with the spectrum they need. Today, they are a solid number three.
The good news is three strong competitors will make this industry better, faster and stronger.
That being said, T-Mobile is still in the process of digesting Sprint. They will continue to be for quite a while going forward. We’ve seen this in the industry after watching many similar mergers over recent decades.
Different directions for Verizon Wireless, AT&T Mobility, T-Mobile
Now the three wireless leaders are heading in different directions.
Think of the wireless industry as advancing in stages. One stage was moving from analog to digital in the 1990’s. Another stage was when the iPhone, Android and wireless data began.
Each of these had a growth period which lasted many years until it slowed down and the carriers created the next growth wave.
The next growth wave has now begun. Except this time, each carrier is heading in different directions.
Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile on different growth waves
Verizon Wireless has tried several different paths for growth in recent years with AOL and Yahoo but have not successfully made any new impact in the industry.
Several years ago, Verizon warned we should not expect growth for several years. They were right. And that still holds true today.
So, there is still a big question mark around the future for Verizon Wireless. Will they become more than just a wireless player or not?
They are a strong company, but do not show strong growth and haven’t for a while.
So, we will just have to wait and see what their plans are under their new CEO Hans Vestberg.
AT&T Mobility is on a very aggressive expansion and growth path and they have been for several years. AT&T is transforming and growing into a full-service communications, news and entertainment company.
They now own Warner Brothers Studio, WarnerMedia which includes CNN and other programming assets. They just launched AT&T TV and HBO Max and are one of the top companies stretching the space in meaningful ways.
Their new CEO John Stankey will continue to take them in this new growth direction.
T-Mobile after acquiring Sprint is finally a strong third place competitor. They finally have marketing and spectrum under one roof. Like I said earlier I expect them to continue to show growth for a while until the industry levels off.
The good news is I admire the effort and results in saving the company from extinction a few short years ago. The bad news is they are strictly a one-horse show. They are strictly a wireless player as competitors spread their wings for growth.
T-Mobile remains strictly wireless as competitors expand
While there is nothing wrong with this approach for a while, the wireless industry does have a limited number of subscribers. So, this path must be a short-term plan and they must find growth in other areas.
Verizon and AT&T both saw that and over the last several years have taken different paths for growth.
Consider what AT&T is doing in this space. They are a wireless carrier that they will mix with their new AT&T TV, HBO Max and other services. This mix and match gives them a competitive advantage which should grow over time.
Mixing and matching services is AT&T advantage
That’s why I say before T-Mobile growth slows, they must expand their vision and find new ways to expand. Today, T-Mobile is like a racehorse with blinders on so they can stay focused.
Any way you slice it, over the next few years T-Mobile will need to expand their vision for new growth avenues the same way Verizon and AT&T have been doing in recent years.
There is no other way in order to see continued growth.
What’s next in 5G wireless: TeleHealth, Automated Vehicles and more
Any way you slice it, we now have a three-horse race and that’s good. It’s good for each player, their investors, workers and customers.
As the industry is reaching its growth potential, I see two, distinct growth opportunities going forward in the world of 5G.
One is for traditional wireless users and two is to help other companies and industries use 5G to transform and grow their future.
We are already seeing how this has started. Think about how 5G is aggressively expanding our world with TeleHealth, Self-Driving Cars, and so many other industries goingn forward.
So, 5G is a real growth opportunity for all three wireless networks in these two ways. They can and will see enormous growth from all these different areas.
The difference between 4G and 5G wireless
That’s the real difference between 4G and 5G. 4G was simply a faster network and only impacted the wireless industry. However, 5G will do that and much more. It will expand other industries as well.
That’s the exceptional growth opportunity looking forward.
I want all three wireless networks to be successful. However, it all depends on their plan and how well they execute as the industry changes.
We will have to keep our eyes on all three as 5G becomes the reality going forward.
Investors, workers, business customers and consumers are all paying close attention. Everyone wants to be on the winning side.
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