Wireless carriers don’t start reporting earnings until Thursday, but researchers are already projecting that T-Mobile US will trounce its rivals when it comes to subscriber gains. Consumer Intelligence Research Partners estimates that the “un-carrier” gained many more subscribers than it lost during the first quarter, while both Verizon Wireless and AT&T Mobility lost more than they gained.
The researchers estimate that 12% of U.S. mobile phone users activated a new or used device during the first quarter. T-Mobile “attracted new customers from other carriers at an astonishing rate, attracting another 42% of their base of existing customers who activated a phone in the quarter,” said Josh Lowitz of Consumer Intelligence Research Parthers. “Sprint also gained a significant percentage of customers relative to its base, but lost almost as many.” Lowitz’ firm conducted its research through interviews with 500 people who activated phones during Q1.
These findings are in line with projections published earlier this month by Wells Fargo Securities, where analyst Jennifer Frtizsche projects that T-Mobile will have “by far the strongest subscriber growth.” She is calling for 960,000 postpaid net additions, including 768,000 handsets, and 440,000 prepaid net additions. Fritzsche expects Verizon Wireless to report roughly 480,000 net adds, and she thinks all of that growth will come from tablet activations, with handset subscribers declining by 120,000. She expects a similar result from AT&T, with tablet additions of roughly 450,000 offset by 200,000 handset losses. Sprint is the only carrier from which Fritzsche expects overall subscriber declines, with 25,000 postpaid net losses and 75,000 phone losses.
Sprint CEO Marcelo Claure reacted to Fritzsche’s projections with a succinct tweet that sent Sprint’s stock price higher. Claure simply tweeted “Hmm ??” so he has not denied projections that the carrier will see significant subscriber losses, but he has definitely left room for speculation that Sprint will produce a positive surprise when it reports earnings May 3.
During the fourth quarter of 2015, T-Mobile US added 1.29 million postpaid subscribers, 917,000 of which were handsets. Overall, T-Mobile US said it added 2.1 million net new customers in Q4, down slightly from Q3’s 2.3 million net additions. AT&T Mobility added more net new customers than any other carrier during Q4, with 1.4 million “retail” connections in Q4, but T-Mobile won the race for lucrative postpaid subscribers.
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