I believe the wireless marketing wars will split, accelerate and intensify in 2016. While AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless have always had the lead, suddenly we are seeing Sprint and T-Mobile US wake up and start to pick up marketing steam. We are also seeing Google Project Fi enter the scene as a mobile virtual network operator. So what can we expect going forward?
One question we have is will the gains Sprint and T-Mobile US are making come from larger or smaller competitors? Larger competitors are AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless and smaller competitors are companies like US Cellular and C Spire Wireless. Of course we could also see the business from MVNO players like Tracfone as well.
Split in wireless marketplace
This is not the only question either. In addition to this accelerating marketing war, there is a split going on in wireless. AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless are on one side and Sprint, T-Mobile US and all the rest are on the other side. This has to do with the continuing advancement of the networks, the Internet, the “Internet of Things” and assorted advanced services. AT&T and Verizon Communications offer a very wide variety of wireless and wireline services while the others offer strictly wireless.
There is nothing right or wrong about either approach, but they do take the companies in different directions so comparing them becomes more difficult.
Wireless TV or TV everywhere
Another factor is wireless TV or TV everywhere, which has begun to transform the wireless and television industry. With the recent DirecTV acquisition and its U-verse IPTV services, this gives AT&T an early advantage, which I believe will accelerate in 2016. Verizon with FiOS IPTV and their new Go90, which is a mobile video service, could also grow to become a competitor going forward in this same space.
This is forcing the cable television industry to go back to the drawing board and try to make wireless offerings work. Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cox and others tried wireless once and failed. However, now that their competition is offering wireless TV and winning market share, it’s forcing the cable television industry back to the drawing board to find a way and make it work.
In addition, new players are moving into the wireless space like Google Project Fi with its MVNO. Google wants to make inroads into the handset space with Android and the network space with Project Fi. In fact, there is also a rumor Microsoft may be heading in the same direction.
If that’s the case, I believe we will see the MVNO marketplace potentially explode with growth where lots of companies get into the space. If so, there will be plenty of winners and losers in the next few years in this one slice of the wireless pie.
Google Project Tango, Lenovo smartphone
Google Project Tango may play a role in the marketplace in 2016. Lenovo will offer a smartphone handset later this year, which innovates and advances the smartphone using this new technology. This raises lots of questions like will this be an app available on all Google Android devices or just on Lenovo smartphones? Since the idea is being developed using the Motorola acquisition formerly owned by Google and now by Lenovo, this is an interesting question.
Wireless is center of communications universe
So any way you slice it, 2016 looks like a very exciting year in wireless, television and beyond. I don’t want to say that wireless is the center of the universe when it comes to communications because wireline is just as important in a different way. However, wireless creates mobility and that is one of the most important features that will empower all sorts of devices and services going forward in many areas like entertainment, healthcare, shopping, travel and so much more.
Whether we talk about wireless or wireline like Internet access or IoT, the communications world will continue to be the most important basic piece to the puzzle for our society going forward. That means growth for industries, workers and investors will be strong in wireless and wireline going forward.
That’s why AT&T is aggressively growing in all sorts of areas empowered by wireless, wireline, Internet and IoT. Verizon is also growing in this space, however, from what I can see their growth seems more to focus on wireless than wireline at this time. In a city damaged by hurricane Sandy a couple years ago, Verizon is going wireless only to the dismay of many customers.
So if these companies will not be head-to-head competitors, how will we be able to track and compare for market share and investor interest? It will be more difficult. This does raise many questions. Perhaps we will have to stop measuring every wireless company with the same yardstick. True, they are all part of a larger wireless industry, but increasingly that wireless industry has definite segments and each company in each segment will compete differently.
Wireless fuels growth in other industries
Wireless opportunities are not just for wireless companies. In fact, we are seeing companies with new technologies that work with wireless transforming their own segments. This is exciting as these companies change the rules and create entirely new marketplaces. That means health care, automotive, retail and so much more.
So 2016 will be an exciting year for wireless carriers, handset makers, app makers and other industries using this technology. This is exciting and I’ll be writing about all sorts of new and innovative companies, products, services and ideas throughout the year.
The marketplace is maturing and I think there are really important and advanced companies, features and services that are important for every user, investor, worker and competitor. Some you already know and many you have not heard of yet. So stay tuned.
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