Editor’s Note: RCR Wireless News asked wireless industry analysts and executives to provide their predictions for what they expect to see in 2012 across their areas of expertise.
Emerging markets operators will hold off on LTE deployments in favor of upgrading their 3G networks to HSPA+. This technology provides spectral efficiency and headline data speeds similar to current implementations of LTE for the price of a software upgrade in most cases. Short-term, the HSPA+ ecosystem will be better developed than that of LTE, especially in handsets, meaning there will be plenty of lower-cost devices better suited to price-sensitive emerging markets consumers.
According to Global Mobile Suppliers Association statistics, 94 HSPA+ and DC-HSPA networks will have been launched in emerging markets to date, versus only 16 LTE networks. Although 18 LTE launches are expected in 2012, the sheer number of non-LTE “4G” implementations means operators as a whole will be investing more in expanding and reinforcing HSPA+/DC-HSPA than in LTE.
In Latin America, there were three LTE launches in the second half of December coming in quick succession after a TD-LTE announcement by Sky in Brazil. The other two were UNE in Colombia and ANTEL in Uruguay. UNE had already announced deployment for launch in 2012 and ANTEL similarly had announced suppliers but no firm date for commercial launch. At this time Sky is limited to Brasilia and the UNE and ANTEL announcements seem rushed. Actual commercial deployment may be limited. We expect at least one more launch and perhaps only another two beyond this. (OpenMobile will launch soon in Puerto Rico but this island is often considered part of the United States rather than part of Latin America.)
But virtually all operators in the eight largest markets have launched HSPA+, and although DC-HSPA has only been launched in Chile, there are strong rumors of more implementations this year. There is no question that the lion’s share of capex spending in the region will be on HSPA+ including DC-HSPA.
The good news for most vendors is that they will have more volume over which to recover their investments in UMTS. The bad news for LTE specialists like Samsung is that there will be fewer deals or at least less revenue in 2012 than they might have thought.
