Consumerization, cloud computing, consumer and enterprise social networks, mobile application, the shifting of sources of supply from Asia to the Americas, big data and cybercrime are some of the trends among research and advisory firm Gartner’s top predictions for IT organizations and users for 2012 and beyond. Gartner (NYSE: IT) also cited trends such as chief information officers losing control of their IT expenditures, which will be managed outside the IT department’s budget.
Trends include events that will change the nature of business today and in years to come. One big challenge is to deal and to understand the increase in the amount of information available to organizations. According to Gartner, given the shifts in control of systems that IT organizations are facing, the loss of ability to guarantee consistency and effectiveness of data will leave many struggling to prevent their organizations from missing key opportunities or from using questionable information for strategic decisions.
Through 2015, Gartner says that more than 85% of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to effectively exploit big data for competitive advantage. Most organizations are ill prepared to address both the technical and management challenges posed by big data; as a direct result, few will be able to effectively exploit this trend for competitive advantage.
Gartner said that by 2015, low-cost cloud services will cannibalize up to 15% of top outsourcing players’ revenue. In the next three to five years, the new model will reset the value proposition of IT in a move similar to what happened with the adoption of offshore delivery, Gartner said.
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In 2013, Gartner predicts, the investment bubble will burst for consumer social networks, and for enterprise social software companies in 2014. In the enterprise market, many small independent social networking vendors are struggling to reach critical mass at a time when market consolidation is starting, the firm said, and megavendors, such as Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Google and VMware have made substantial efforts to penetrate the enterprise social networking market.
By 2016, at least 50% of enterprise email users will rely primarily on a browser, tablet or mobile client instead of a desktop client. It means market opportunities for mobile device management platform vendors and an increased pressure on those suppliers to accommodate an increasing portfolio of collaboration services, including instant messaging, Web conferencing, social networking and shared workspaces.
By 2015, mobile application development projects targeting smartphones and tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio of 4-to-1, Gartner said, with smartphones and tablets represent more than 90% of the new net growth in device adoption in the next four years. In contrast, app development projects targeting PCs will be on par with mobile development this year, Gartner said. Future adoption will triple between the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of 2014, Gartner said, and will result in the vast majority of client-side applications being mobile-only or mobile-first for these devices.
By 2016, 40% of enterprises will make proof of independent security testing a precondition for using any type of cloud service. This means that instead of requesting that a third-party security vendor conduct testing on the enterprise’s behalf, the enterprise will be satisfied by a cloud provider’s certificate stating that a reputable third-party security vendor has already tested its applications.
By the end of 2016, more than half of Global 1000 companies will have stored customer-sensitive data in the public cloud. Gartner estimates that more than 20% of organizations have already begun to selectively store their customer-sensitive data in a hybrid architecture that is a combined deployment of their on-premises solution with a private and/or public cloud provider in 2011.
By 2015, 35% of enterprise IT expenditures for most organizations will be managed outside the IT department’s budget. Business managers and individual employees who no longer need technology to be contextualized for them by an IT department are demanding control over the IT expenditure. As a result, CIOs will see some of their current budget simply reallocated to other areas of the business.
By 2014, 20% of Asia-sourced finished goods and assemblies consumed in the U.S. will shift to the Americas becaue of political, environmental, economic and supply-chain risks. These factors are causing many companies serving the U.S. market to shift sources of supply from Asia to the Americas, except in cases in which there is a unique manufacturing process or product intellectual property.
Through 2016, the financial impact of cybercrime will grow 10% a year with the continuing discovery of new vulnerabilities. And by 2015, the prices for 80% of cloud services will include a global energy surcharge.
A list of Gartner’s predictions is available online at Gartner Predicts 2012.
