India’s wireless market may not be as big as thought, according to a report that claims nearly 30% of the country’s mobile customers are classified as “inactive.”
The Wireless Intelligence report, citing figures from the Telecoms Regulatory Authority of India, claims that nearly 250 million of Indian connections were inactive during the second quarter of the year, which would clip the country’s active mobile customer base to around 600 million subscribers.
“The fact that the country’s connection base is inflated by some 250 million inactive connections has dampened the growth achievements of many Indian operators, and clearly shows that further investments are still required to expand and improve network coverage,” explained Joss Gillet, senior analyst at Wireless Intelligence.
The firm noted the change has come as TRAI has cut the window a prepaid customer can be considered an active user from recharging their plan within a period of 180 days, to 90 days last year and more recently to just 20 days.
TRAI reported earlier this month that the country’s mobile customer base hit 851.7 million subscribers at the end of the second quarter, with overall market penetration of more than 70%. According to Wireless Intelligence, the re-calculation cuts the country’s mobile penetration from 68% to 48%, with future growth now expected to rely heavily on rural markets.
The Wireless Intelligence report found that Etisalat DB’s Cheer Mobile was most impacted by the new rules with 65% of its 1.4 million total customers now considered inactive. Of India’s three dominant carriers, No. 2 Reliance Communications had the largest percentage of inactive users at 38% of its 143.3 million subscriber base. The country’s largest operator, Bharti Airtel, had 11% of its 169.2 million customer base considered inactive.
On a regional basis, the report found that Mumbai had the highest share of inactive customers with 43% of the total.
Despite the potential downgrade, India remains the world’s second largest wireless market behind China’s more than 900 million customers and well ahead of the more than 320 million in the United States. However, these numbers are not likely directly compared as each country, and sometimes each carrier, has a different way of measuring active and inactive subscribers.
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