'Three strikes' for Verizon Wireless, analyst says

Interesting conclusions are being drawn based on some daily point-of-sale data that ITG Investment Research analyst Matthew Goldman apparently leaked to AllThingsD.
Depending on who you ask or what you read, Verizon Wireless (VZ) could be too dependent on Android devices, AT&T Mobility (T) is stunting its growth thanks to its prolonged iPhone exclusivity (which shows how badly it needs the iPhone) or the recent decline of BlackBerry sales at Verizon indicate a worsening sales outlook for Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM).
The report, which is based on “daily point-of-sale data from thousands of independent wireless retailers across the (United States),” also forecasts monthly sales records across every device category for the carrier.
According to that research, 80% of smart-phone sales at Verizon last month were Android devices. The flip side to Google Inc.’s (GOOG) gain is apparently Research In Motion’s decline. Goodman expects BlackBerry sales to drop 49% year-over-year at the end of the year, continuing that trend after dropping 45% year-over-year in the third quarter this year.
The bigger problem for Verizon Wireless however, is how badly its growth has been clipped by iPhone sales at AT&T, according to Horace Dediu at Asymco. In fact, Dediu lays out three strikes against Verizon Wireless: 1) “the iPhone has stolen their growth,” 2) “they are facing the prospect of a single OS (operating system) platform supplier” and 3) “Android is not competitive vs. iOS.”
Pinning Verizon’s total volumes versus the iPhone alone at AT&T, Dediu writes: “The fact remains that iPhone alone is nearly twice the volume of all of Verizon’s smart-phone activations.”
On the OS front, whereas Verizon may have been too reliant on the BlackBerry platform in the past, it is now running up against potential problems down the road with Android, Dediu added.
“Although Verizon used to have a disproportionate share of RIM’s products, that OS was not enabling an ecosystem like Google’s. It was a product narrowly defined around messaging. Verizon is facing the prospect of a single OS supplier who may or may not maintain alignment with Verizon’s core profit algorithm. If they diverge, Verizon’s bargaining power will be strictly limited,” he wrote.
Of course that could change if (or when) Verizon starts selling the iPhone and both carriers are expected to sell the Apple device at the same rate. Dediu writes that “by 2009 Verizon was probably optimistic that they could head off AT&T (and Apple) at the pass,” but “that optimism dissipated sometime this year and was replaced by a more dreadful prospect than what iPhone presented in 2007.”
He added: ” Apple may be the devil, but so could be Google. Apple was predictably evil. But Google? The devil you know is perhaps better than the one you can’t predict.”