Gartner reads the OS tea leaves

Predicting the future in any aspect of technology is mostly a fool’s errand, but that doesn’t stop virtually every major research firm and analyst group from jumping into the ring. Of course, when it comes to mobile, trying to gauge how things will look beyond even the next 12 months has become as predictable as a crap shoot.
Nonetheless, the media eat these projections up and Gartner Inc. (IT) knows it.
The firm’s latest report predicts Google Inc.’s (GOOG) Android operating system will be the market leader by 2014.
By that time, Symbian and Android are expected to comprise 59.8% of mobile OS sales and Gartner expects to the two platforms to be in heated battle for the top spot.
Thanks to growing marketing and vendor support from carriers and handset manufacturers, Android should become the second-largest OS, following Symbian, by the end of this year, which would be two years earlier than Gartner predicted just a year ago.
Things change fast in the mobile space. Back in 2006, Gartner predicted that developers would mostly flock to Microsoft Corp.’s (MSFT) Windows Mobile platform.
“Interest in Windows Mobile 5.0 has grown steadily, and it now attracts far more developers than any rival mobile operating system. This should improve the likelihood of IT directors being able to buy line-of-business mobile applications for the Microsoft platform. More than 10,000 developers are currently working on applications for Windows Mobile 5.0. Part of the reason for this developer momentum is Microsoft’s programming model,” VP Nick Jones said at the time, according to computerweekly.com.
Fast forward four years to today and Microsoft isn’t even listed in Gartner’s top four mobile operating systems.
“The worldwide mobile OS market is dominated by four players: Symbian, Android, Research In Motion and iOS,” said Roberta Cozza, principal research analyst at Gartner. “Launches of updated operating systems — such as Apple iOS 4, BlackBerry OS 6, Symbian 3 and Symbian 4, and Windows Phone 7 — will help maintain strong growth in smartphones in 2H10 and 2011 and spur innovation. However, we believe that market share in the OS space will consolidate around a few key OS providers that have the most support from CSPs and developers and strong brand awareness with consumer and enterprise customers.”