2009 Wireless Forecast: Applications: Developers gung-ho on year: Most see increased spending on development

Businesses in nearly every industry seem to be adopting a bunker mentality and shedding workers in an effort to weather an increasingly brutal economic storm. But wireless software developers are more bullish than ever on their industry.
Evans Data last week released a report indicating an astounding 48% of enterprise-focused developers expect activity in the space to increase in 2009, and nearly as many (46%) expect the same amount of development as last year. Only 6% of the nearly 400 polled expect development in the space to decrease, and two-thirds of the developers expect data revenues to rise this year.
Even more interesting: Money was cited as “the most important consideration by far,” according to the market research firm, with one-quarter of respondents claiming revenue potential was their primary driving factor and another 21% identifying bigger marketing opportunities. Only 15% of those polled said platform openness was the most important consideration.
Stores of gold
Two main factors behind the optimism, according to Evans Data CEO John Andrews: Companies are investing in wireless offerings that improve efficiency, and consumers are increasingly buying mobile applications from storefronts such as Apple Inc.’s App Store.
“What we’re finding is that there are a significant number of corporate development initiatives that either have been started or have yet to be started related to wireless that essentially improve productivity, which of course is key in this economic environment we’re operating in right now,” Andrews said. “And for commercially oriented developers, we just see the distribution channels being cleaned up and made more efficient. . Prior to, say, Apple, the distribution channel was largely through the carriers. And anyone who has any knowledge of this industry knows that that channel is not friendly.”
That sentiment is supported by a second Evans Data study of developers involved in open source Linux projects on any device. While the most lucrative developers – those making more than $10,000 from their own open-source apps – often sell directly to end users, small- to mid-range developers who can’t reach consumers directly have flocked to retailers such as the App Store and Android Market, where they can upload their offerings and enjoy broad reach without jumping through carriers’ hoops.
Eggs in one basket
Just as they’re providing developers with new channels to market, though, they’re creating a fragmented market where coders must carefully choose which offerings to build on or risk pouring resources into a platform that won’t gain traction. Which means they need to look beyond the developer tools available to them and ensure platforms can support viable business models and full ecosystems, Rubicon Consulting principal Michael Mace wrote late last year.
“If you’re a software developer and some platform vendor or Web company comes around evangelizing their software store or their API’s, you should evaluate the overall ecosystem they’re providing, not just the store or APIs alone,” Mace wrote on his blog. “If they haven’t thought through issues like billing and discovery, it’s a big warning sign.”
Marketshare
Meanwhile, Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Mobile continues to be the platform of choice for mobile enterprise developers, with 40% more developers planning to target Microsoft’s venerable platform than those planning to build for Apple’s iPhone, EDC found. And 46% more say they will target the .NET Compact Framework – a key component of Microsoft’s mobile development platform – than Google Inc.’s Android.
But the days of Windows Mobile’s dominance may be numbered: One-third of respondents are using the .NET Compact Framework, according to EDC, down from 40% just six months ago, as the iPhone and Android close ground. That gap will likely continue to close as the new players continue to gain traction and planned storefronts come online from Palm Inc., Research In Motion Ltd. and a handful of others . And there’s no reason to expect a surge from Microsoft’s wireless platform until Windows Mobile 7.0 comes to market – which isn’t expected until the second half of the year.
“Over the last six or nine months, Windows Mobile adoption has been flat and/or decreasing, whereas you’ve seen the iPhone tripling,” Andrews observed. “Of course, it’s tripling from a base that’s much smaller. . But there’s nothing on the near-term planning horizon that says Windows Mobile is going to stop that (movement) anytime soon.”