eBay for billionaires

I’m not sure what it is about auctions that causes me to lose all sense of time and space, but the ongoing 700 MHz spectrum free-for-all has me bouncing off my cubicle walls and searching for a calculator that can display more than the eight digits my trusty Casio SL-200L is providing.
Before the aptly named Auction 73 started (can’t the Federal Communications Commission come up with some more exciting names, like “The auction to end all auctions!?”) analysts’ predictions mostly honed in on the low end of their $10 billion to $15 billion in total bids. But following just 18 rounds of bidding, the FCC managed to attract nearly $13.7 billion. And this is without even a single bid being placed on the highly coveted E-Block license covering Minot, N.D. Once action begins on that hot piece of property, and we all know it’s just a matter of time, the auction total will skyrocket.
Of course, another reason I believe this auction is just getting started is that my current knowledge of such processes is based on studying the eBay model, where the real bidding doesn’t even begin until the final seconds.
The billions being spent on the 700 MHz spectrum may seem like funny-money, and really whenever there are billions involved it should be considered funny-money, but for what is at stake, this is money that companies seriously interested in the wireless space must spend.
The C Block in particular is very attractive. This spectrum is similar to the 850 MHz spectrum the government basically gave away in the early 1980s. That spectrum has become the base on which some of today’s operators built their businesses. You don’t see many 850 MHz spectrum swaps from companies looking for a long-time presence in wireless, and for good reason. The propagation characteristics of that band have proven a boon for mobile communications, and the increased coverage from the 700 MHz is even more compelling.
Of course, when the names of the winning bidders are unveiled, which I’m hoping will be in some sort of elaborate ceremony featuring dancing girls and fireworks, the most likely winners will be the usual names already operating in the wireless space. There might be a new name here or there, but this spectrum is just too valuable for the established players to pass up.