When Cingular Wireless L.L.C. launches high-speed data packet access-based service en masse in the United States later this year, the protocol is expected to double the carrier’s reach, making a significant mark not only in this country, but around the world as well.
But Cingular’s decision to go forward with the software-enhanced HSDPA, rather than the more generic UMTS technology it inherited from AT&T Wireless Services Inc., begs the question of how long UMTS will be around until it is upgraded to its next-generation iteration.
Indeed, Germany’s T-Mobile July 21 said it would upgrade its entire UMTS network to HSPDA. Plans call for testing this fall and HSDPA commercial service to be available anywhere T-Mobile offers UMTS service by March 9, when CeBIT takes place in Hannover, Germany.
The reason carriers like Cingular and T-Mobile are buzzing with the potential of HSDPA, described as the 3.5-generation evolution of W-CDMA: Speed and efficiency. Cingular promises the network will support speeds of between 400-700 kilobits per second-doubling UMTS speeds and outpacing the 300-500 kbps clocked on Verizon Wireless’ CDMA EV-DO network.
Further, HSDPA “increases the available bandwidth for data transmission in the UMTS network by a factor of almost five, from 384 kilobits to up to 1.8 megabits per second,” T-Mobile stated. “In the future, these speeds will be increased step by step to 7.2 megabits per second. This makes HSDPA faster than many DSL basic accesses, allows rapid access to very complex intranet applications or Internet sites-and cuts a considerable proportion of the waiting time for page build.”
As such, HSDPA is quickly gaining traction among UMTS carriers. In fact, Cingular has not massively marketed UMTS service in the six cities where it already offers service: Dallas, Detroit, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle. The carrier is getting speeds of 200-320 kilobits per second on its UMTS network, compared with speeds of 75-135 kilobits per second on its nationwide EDGE network, according to Ritch Blasi, director of media and industry analyst relations at Cingular.
Cingular is busy upgrading its six UMTS networks to HSDPA and expects to complete the work by the end of this year. The company says it plans to launch HSDPA-based service in 15 to 20 other U.S. markets by the end of this year, and in the rest of the major U.S. markets by the end of 2006, relying on equipment from L.M. Ericsson, Lucent Technologies Inc. and Siemens AG.
Beyond Cingular’s UMTS plans, T-Mobile USA Inc. said it likely will bypass a commercial UMTS deployment and begin offering higher-speed HSDPA services beginning in 2007. Those plans are tied to spectrum availability as T-Mobile USA’s current portfolio is not robust enough to support the 10 megahertz of clean spectrum required to launch UMTS/HSDPA services.
Getting enough handsets commercially available when networks are ready has been a consistent problem for carriers in each new generation of technology. While UMTS handsets now are readily available, no handset maker has yet announced an HSDPA-capable phone. However, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and LG Electronics Co. Ltd. have shown off prototype HSDPA handsets.
Cingular plans to use Novatel and Sierra Wireless PC cards, as well as quad-band devices that will be backward compatible with its GSM/GPRS/EDGE network when the service launches, Blasi said. The company plans to use handsets from LG and Samsung, with Nokia Corp. and Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications L.P. providing other equipment.
Investment banking firm UBS in a June report noted that the number of UMTS phones is on the rise, with 75 available from 16 manufacturers, and the research firm expects a 59-percent increase by the end of the year. The report went on to say that Nokia and Motorola Inc. are “the best hedged” for UMTS growth, having a presence at the greatest number of operators.
The price of UMTS handsets has not been an impediment to uptake of 3G service in markets where it’s commercially available, UBS said. Rather the lack of new designs with must-have applications and lower network quality of service are to blame. Operators most likely will continue to subsidize handsets, however lower wholesale pricing should ease the burden, which may give operators more incentive to push UMTS.
UBS also found that competition amongst UMTS carriers appears to be driving costs down, citing the case with Vodafone UK, where UMTS pricing is now below that of GSM service.
UMTS uptake around the globe
The Global Mobile Suppliers Association reported in June that there are 74 UMTS networks in 34 countries offering commercial services. Six more networks are at the pre-commercial stage. The association counted 26.48 million W-CDMA subscribers across the globe as of the end of May, and reported that UMTS services are taking off faster than GSM did at the same stage of its introduction. The group offered different numbers than UBS, reporting 179 W-CDMA devices on the market from 26 suppliers, including HSDPA PC data cards and handsets.
In its report, 3G Americas also detailed industry progress toward UMTS Release 6, which is expected to be wrapped up this summer. The Third Generation Partnership Project Release 6 enables greater speeds, capacity improvements and new applications. Enhancements such as reduced latency and improvements for real-time services, such as voice over IP, are part of the standards for 3GPP Rel’7.
“With wireless data services starting to follow a similar growth curve to that of wireline data, the GSM community has recently focused on the near-term evolution to support HSDPA and IMS through 3GPP Rel’5. Yet, UMTS/HSDPA is not an end point, its future evolution will continue to enhance speed, performance and cost for vendors, carriers and customers,” said Chris Pearson, president of 3G Americas.
