DETROIT-Automotive telematics applications are going to influence most auto electronics, and a wide variety of high-profile players will compete for market share, according to a new study from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.
The study predicts telematics subscribers in the United States will grow from about 820,000 currently to more than 11 million subscribers by 2004, but noted the perfection of the interface between the technology and its users will be crucial to that growth. Banking and shopping from the car will account for the greatest share of applications, in addition to normal voice communications.
“Our earlier study predicted that automotive electronics applications would grow much faster than the automotive market generally. That dramatic growth was, in effect, the first electronics revolution in autos, and the surge of telematics is the second revolution,” said Michael M. Heidingsfelder, partner and executive vice president of Roland Berger in Detroit.
“Our study shows that telematics will influence powertrain, chassis, safety, security, infotainment and interface display systems. About the only systems not touched by telematics will be body electronics, and it’s not too great of a leap to include many of those eventually,” Heidingsfelder added.
The size of the telematics market and its rate of growth will be strongly affected by legislation and regulations regarding cell-phone use in vehicles, the study said.
By mid-2005, for example, estimates of the size of the U.S. market range from about $3 billion up to $13.4 billion, depending on the effects of legislative activity and industry self-regulation to reduce accidents caused by distractions.
To protect the telematics market, original equipment manufacturers and suppliers must work quickly to perfect the human-machine interface, Heidingsfelder said. The target of the interface must be “hands on the wheel and eyes on the road.”
“Anything less will not be acceptable and will not prevent the government from restricting the extensive usage of mobile communication in vehicles,” said Heidingsfelder.
Some key questions still waiting to be answered in the telematics arena include which interface system or combination of systems will be employed, and who will supply information to the vehicle, at what level and on what network, the study said.
