WASHINGTON-The Congressional Budget Office predicts the transition to digital television will take longer than anticipated, a possible outcome that will delay the rollout of new 800 MHz public-safety systems across the country and likely reduce auction receipts from the sale of analog broadcast spectrum.
Under a 1997 law, broadcasters do not have to abandon analog channels until digital TV is available to at least 85 percent of households in their respective markets. The conversion to DTV is supposed to be mostly completed by 2006.
“Currently available evidence suggests … the 85-percent goal is unlikely to be met by 2006,” said CBO in a new report.
CBO, Congress’ official number cruncher, said its doubts are based on uncertainty over the availability of programming and outlets for DTV, factors that are in part tied to controversial regulatory matters pending before the Federal Communications Commission.
The 1997 law also transferred 24 megahertz from TV channels 60-69 (764-776 MHz/794-806 MHz ) to public safety, and earmarked 36 megahertz from the same frequency band for FCC spectrum auctions.
CBO said the $6.1 billion it projects from the sale of analog TV spectrum likely would be reduced if the migration to DTV extends beyond 2006.
But public-safety representatives say there is more than U.S. Treasury revenue at stake.
“This is not a matter of money; it is a matter of saving lives,” said Joe Hanna, president of the Association of Public-Safety Communications Officials International, in a letter sent to FCC Chairman William Kennard earlier this month.
“Without nationwide access to spectrum,” commented Hanna, “public-safety agencies will face continued congestion on existing channels, will be unable to implement new public-safety radio systems and technologies, and will not have the communications interoperability necessary for coordinated responses to emergency situations.”
An industry advisory committee is currently crafting a plan to implement 800 MHz public-safety systems throughout the country, based on DTV being largely in place by 2006.
But, with the digital television transition plodding along, CBO commented, “Broadcasters have only weak incentives to end it. Without a firm completion date, broadcasters will keep broadcasting both their analog and digital signals as long as it is profitable to do so.”
