GlobalData told RCR Wireless News that despite high fiber penetration, growth will continue to be driven by network upgrades, premium high-speed plans, and the gradual migration away from legacy copper infrastructure
In sum – what to know:
Fiber growth offsets decline – Fixed broadband rising at 1.3% CAGR balances a 1.8% drop in voice, keeping total market growth at a modest 0.4%.
Bundling drives stability – Operators rely on multi-play packages and premium fiber tiers to sustain ARPU and reduce churn in a saturated market.
Competition shifts to speed – With near-universal coverage, differentiation moves to multi-gigabit services and next-generation FTTH capabilities.
Japan’s fixed communications market is set for marginal growth through the end of the decade, as fiber broadband expansion offsets ongoing declines in legacy voice services, according to new data from GlobalData.
The research firm forecasts that total fixed services revenue in Japan will increase slightly from $26.4 billion in 2025 to $26.9 billion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 0.4%. The modest growth reflects a structural shift in the market, where operators are increasingly relying on high-speed connectivity and bundled offerings to sustain revenues in a mature and highly saturated environment.
Fixed voice revenues are expected to continue declining, with GlobalData projecting a CAGR of -1.8% over the forecast period. This drop is largely driven by the growing prevalence of bundled service packages, where voice is often included at no additional cost. In contrast, fixed broadband revenues are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.3%, supported by continued expansion of fiber-optic access.
“Despite high fiber penetration, growth will continue to be driven by network upgrades, premium high-speed plans, and the gradual migration away from legacy copper infrastructure,” Neha Mishra, telecom analyst at GlobalData told RCR Wireless News.
The analyst also pointed to policy support and evolving user demand as key contributors to continued expansion. “Japan’s government is targeting near-universal fiber coverage by 2027, encouraging operators to expand FTTH access in remaining underserved areas and upgrade existing networks,” she said.
“Rising demand for ultra-high-speed connectivity for cloud services, remote work, and 4K/8K video streaming is pushing households and even businesses to migrate to multi-gigabit fiber plans,” Mishra added.
At the same time, bundled services are becoming central to operators’ revenue strategies as traditional voice declines. “Bundled services and premium broadband tiers are becoming critical revenue stabilizers as standalone fixed voice demand declines,” Mishra said.
According to the analyst, operators are increasingly combining fiber broadband with mobile, IPTV, and digital services to drive customer retention and improve average revenue per user (ARPU).
Meanwhile, competition in Japan’s fixed broadband market is shifting away from coverage and toward performance differentiation. “As fiber coverage approaches nationwide availability, competition is shifting toward speed differentiation and next-generation network capabilities rather than basic coverage expansion,” Mishra said.
This transition is evident in the rollout of increasingly faster services. Mishra highlighted plans by NTT to introduce next-generation fiber speeds in the near term. “Operators are introducing multi-gigabit services, with NTT planning to launch 25 Gbps FTTH services in Tokyo in March 2026, highlighting the race toward higher-capacity broadband networks,” she said.
“While NTT is expected to maintain its leadership in terms of subscriber market share through 2030, competitors such as SoftBank and KDDI are projected to record notable subscriber growth,” Mishra added.
