Jeff Heynen, vice president at Dell’Oro Group, told RCR Wireless News that XGS-PON will serve as the primary technology through at least 2030 for mass-market residential deployments
In sum – what to know:
Broadband capex peaks in 2028 – Total broadband access equipment revenue is forecast to reach $18.8 billion before flattening, reflecting cautious operator investment.
XGS-PON stays dominant – Slower consumption growth is pushing large-scale 50 Gbps PON deployments further out, keeping XGS-PON as the main fiber technology this decade.
In-home connectivity drives value – Wi-Fi 7 and advanced broadband CPE remain key revenue contributors even as access network growth slows.
Global spending on broadband access equipment is expected to peak at $18.8 billion in 2028, according to a recent forecast from Dell’Oro Group.
The firm projects the market will grow at a modest 0.3% average annual rate between 2025 and 2030, supported by ongoing DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades and continued fiber expansion by cable and fiber operators.
The updated outlook represents a downward revision from Dell’Oro’s July 2025 forecast, reflecting a slower-than-expected rollout of 50 Gbps PON technologies worldwide. According to the report, operators are reassessing the pace of next-generation upgrades amid slower growth in broadband usage and mounting pressure on margins.
“We reduced our forecasts for 50 Gbps PON deployments largely because of operators’ concerns around slowing average consumption, along with the need to maintain profit levels in increasingly competitive markets,” Jeff Heynen, vice president at Dell’Oro Group, said in a release. “Fiber network expansions and subscriber growth will continue to be priorities, but so will the requirement that broadband services deliver value.”
Within the access market, XGS-PON is expected to remain the dominant fiber technology through the end of the decade, particularly in North America, EMEA and the Caribbean and Latin America (CALA), while China continues to drive volume through large-scale FTTR (fiber to the room) deployments. Meanwhile, cable operators are expected to continue investing in distributed access architectures as they prepare for DOCSIS 4.0, according to the report.
Dell’Oro also expects fixed wireless access customer premises equipment (CPE) shipments to peak in the mid-term, while demand for advanced in-home connectivity — especially Wi-Fi 7 — will remain a major revenue driver until later in the decade.
RCR Wireless News asked Heynen what specific operator concerns were delaying large-scale rollouts of 50 Gbps PON. He said: “Cost remains a primary concern. Until there are volume deployments of the technology, prices will remain too high for most operators to consider mass-market residential deployments, as we have seen with GPON and are now seeing with XGS-PON. Historically, mass deployments in China have helped reduce component pricing for PON equipment, particularly transceivers. Until we see those deployments — likely beginning in 2027 — prices for the technology will remain high. Given the highly competitive nature of the fixed broadband market, operators have to be very conservative with their capex allocations.”
“For mass-market residential deployments, XGS-PON will serve as the primary technology through at least 2030. There will be deployments of 25G and 50G PON, but those will be for targeted, strategic deployments, such as to provide enterprise or campus point-to-multipoint connections. China will see the first large-scale 50G deployments, but we aren’t expecting those to ramp until late 2027. The rest of the world will be focused on expanding homes passed and switching off legacy copper networks, principally using XGS-PON,” Heynen added.
