2009 Wireless Forecast: Technology: LTE revolution inches closer: Carriers, equipment vendors prepare for push

The highly touted LTE technology is expected to make great strides this year as wireless providers launch trials and get ready for commercial deployments in 2010.
Although the standards for the technology have yet to be completed, pre-standards are in place and the infrastructure vendors can make the equipment necessary for the broadband technology that promises high data speeds.
“Two-thousand nine is the year of LTE,” said Vish Nandlall, CTO of carrier networks for Nortel Networks Corp.
Nortel is among 21 equipment vendors participating in the LTE/SAE Trial Initiative, which is comprised of eight operators, including Vodafone Group plc, China Mobile, T-Mobile International and NTT DoCoMo Inc., and equipment vendors that include Nokia Siemens Network, L.M. Ericsson, Motorola Inc. and Alcatel-Lucent.
Speed limit
As LTE starts to take shape in trials and testing, the technology is pushing up against a theory that sets boundaries in how fast information can be sent over networks.
The theory, which was formed in 1948, is widely known in the wireless industry as Shannon’s Law. Claude Shannon, a mathematician for Bell Labs, laid the foundation for information theory.
Shannon’s research determined there is a limit in the amount of information that can be transmitted and received through a channel because of noise. As technological advancements continue to push the envelope in how much data is transmitted through networks, Shannon determined that once data speeds reach a ceiling, speeds can no longer increase as any gains would be nullified by noise.
Nandlall said LTE is pushing up against the limit of the theory and to go beyond would take breaking the law of physics.
The ultimate speed of LTE will be determined in where the carriers set their “cell edge.” The edge is the minimum speed carriers will offer to subscribers where signals are at their weakest.
Recent testing shows LTE is delivering download speeds of between 2 to 3 megabits per second, according to the trial initiative. The speeds are about the same as a competing next-generation technology, WiMAX, which is being commercially deployed in hundreds of markets globally and is the backbone for Clearwire Corp.’s mobile broadband offering Clear in Baltimore and Portland, Ore.
Jumping the gun
Wireless providers that do launch this year may be doing so with networks that fail to meet the LTE’s final specifications, and are instead up to a pre-standard.
“If you want to aggressively launch, you have to be pre-standard,” Nandlall said of the carriers planning to move forward this year.
Nandlall said the standard for equipment has been completed, but standards for System Architecture Evolution remain.
“Fundamentally, the equipment that will be used in the trials this year will be standard complaint,” Nandlall said.
As standards for the core network architecture are being finalized, numerous wireless providers have sent out requests for proposals in their efforts to move forward with their LTE networks.
Same, but different
Nandlall said although the two technologies are on target to deliver the same speeds, the networks are comprised very differently. Nandlall claims LTE has less overhead when it comes to cost and is more energy efficient.
Although the global economy is suffering through an economic downturn, more than 18 wireless providers have announced LTE deployment plans.
Verizon Wireless, which is partly owned by Vodafone, has accelerated its LTE deployment plans from 2010 to this year. The company has trials planned for this year and commercial deployment in the first half of 2010. NTT DoCoMo is also expected to deploy LTE in Japan later this year.
According to ABI Research Senior Analyst Nadine Manjaro, wireless providers across the globe will spend more than $8.6 billion on LTE base station infrastructure by 2013.
“For operators that have already deployed 3G networks, LTE will be a key capex driver over the next five years,” she said.