2010 predictions on Net neutrality, OS battles, cloud vs. edge:

The first predictions for 2010 are officially here with inCode Telecom’s Top 10 list. This year’s list involves a couple of blessing-curse combination predictions, as well as consolidation speculation and regulatory prognosticating, said inCode’s Rob Chimsky, VP and CTO of the company. Chimsky said the company has an accuracy rating of about 80%. The consultancy has been predicting wireless industry trends for seven years now.
The Top 10 Predictions
1. Wireless operators push netbooks, but they prove a mixed bag.
As netbooks gain traction, wireless carriers will see incremental revenue from the devices, but also will be more responsible for customer support on the tiny laptops. Users will want to synch their their cellphones to their netbooks, and also the increased adoption will continue to put more pressure on operators’ networks.
2. The FCC: Stuck in neutral with the Net
Grandiose plans for network neutrality will be met with infighting from all sides, forcing the Federal Communications Commission to reach a compromise that satisfies no one fully, Chimsky said. The agency will likely adopt regulations that let carriers limit traffic on their networks, but not by application or service provider.
3. Wireless operators play “Whack-a-Mole” with data issues
As carriers finally build their RF bandwidth, they are now going to have to address other bottlenecks, namely backhaul, in-building coverage and device battery shortcomings.
4. When all devices are smart, what becomes genius?
As all devices become intelligent, device manufacturers are likely to move to different categories rather than feature phone vs. smartphone. inCode said devices will be categorized by their primary function, i.e., a messaging device, a social-networking device, an entertainment device.
5. Wireless data pricing looks more like the airlines’
Carriers will continue with unlimited pricing plans, but begin to offer incremental charges for things like quality of service. They also may lower the cap on unlimited plans, similar to how a can of potato chips used to hold 12 ounces, but now holds 11 ounces for the same price, Chimsky said.
6. M2M leads operators into new acquisition area
As machine-to-machine communications gain traction, with increased attention from wireless operators, look for at least one purchase of an M2M company by a wireless carrier.
7. A look at clouds from both sides now
Look for a classic battle between operators that embrace the cloud and device manufacturers that prefer the intelligence be handled at the edge.
8. A device OS bites the dust
There is too much fragmentation in the Operating System space, so one or more of the OSes without major backing or major acceptance likely will be laid to rest in 2010 as there aren’t enough device revenues to support seven operating systems.
9. MVNOs get a new lease on life in a very different form
MVNOs that offer wireless as part of a package of services that do not compete with wireless operators, ala Kindle, will be the new MVNOs in town, inCode predicts.
10. Game console video kills the PC star, at least for Internet video
The gaming console will be the primary gateway for viewing Internet video on TV in 2010, but eventually set-top boxes and Internet-connected TVs will win this battle.
Bonus prediction
You can’t track the players without a scorecard
As people use more than one device and incremental ARPU comes to carriers via Prediction No. 9, today’s operating metrics prove less useful and carriers will look outside the industry to measure performance, using metrics like share of wallet.