John Horn, CEO at Ingenu, provides his predictions for the IoT space in 2016
Editor’s Note: With 2016 now upon us, RCR Wireless News has gathered predictions from leading industry analysts and executives on what they expect to see in the new year.
Looking around at all the things enabled by machine-to-machine communications and the “Internet of Things,” it’s difficult to believe in 2016, there will be exponentially more – more devices, more applications and more users. From connected vehicles and smart homes to smart cities and industrial applications in industries such as oil and gas, in 2016, we’ll see all of these industries kick it up a notch in the M2M/IoT marketplace.
Despite all of the positives, we’ll also see challenges continue to face the industry in terms of technology sunsets and overly optimistic timelines. From my perspective, here’s how 2016 will shape up for M2M/IoT:
• The 2G sunset is happening now and it’s going to wreak more havoc than anyone expects. Organizations may think they have plenty of time to transition their M2M/IoT strategy beyond 2G, but the reality is time is short. Especially in the U.S. (but it’s also happening in other parts of the world as well), the majority of early industrial M2M applications run on 2G networks. These “technology transitions” – 2G to 3G to 4G to “5G” and so on – won’t stop and each replacement will cost companies considerably. Many have already run out of time to make their decisions on which network to transition to.
• Cellular technologies such as 3GPP LTE are being hyped significantly as the foundation for the next generation of M2M/IoT devices and applications. The reality is we won’t see traffic on networks based on this standard until at least 2020. When you look historically at how long it takes for all of the pieces to be pulled together for a new cellular network standard, even 2020 may be optimistic. Most companies today aren’t going to wait and see, they need solutions now and are going to place their bets now. Bets that are placed on cellular will undoubtedly be subject to sun setting as the “next generation” comes along.
• We’ll begin to see a series of “strange bedfellows” as partnerships emerge to help the growing demand M2M/IoT is putting on networks. Very few companies will be able to go it alone to deliver an end-to-end experience to their M2M/IoT customers. Many traditional – and as many non-traditional – partnerships will emerge in 2016 to reach this goal.
• Most IoT devices will support long-term assets that are too expensive to service regularly, mostly because of location. In these scenarios, companies need to be able to “set it and forget it.” Additionally, tremendous strides in battery technology will extend battery life up to 10 years and beyond, making this one less thing companies need to worry about.
• LPWA-type networks will prove a strong competitive force to cellular as networks are built out and traffic demands increase. The sun setting issue above is one factor, but another is the fact that cellular networks have been optimized for people communications, not machine communications. M2M/IoT traffic has different requirements than voice and high-speed data traffic and these new networks will cater to that machine traffic exclusively.
• Smart city initiatives will continue to grow as municipalities connect the dots on initiatives they already have in place, and on those they want to add. Smart parking and smart lighting systems are just the beginning for smart cities. I think in 2016, we’ll see at least one smart city initiative emerge that will set a high bar for others to follow.
It’s an exciting time to be in this dynamic industry segment, and as we look forward to 2016, many of the things the industry has been talking about for years will finally come to fruition. At this time next year, it will be interesting to see a brand new crop of M2M/IoT initiatives rolling out.
John Horn has more than 20 years of experience in the telecommunications and wireless industries. Horn is recognized as an M2M/IoT pioneer and leader. Previously serving as president of RacoWireless, a leading provider of M2M connectivity solutions, Horn led the company to record growth and achievement of multiple awards for accomplishments, including “Most Innovative Company” and “Entrepreneurial Company of the Year.” Prior to that position, Horn was a leader at T-Mobile for more than nine years. At T-Mobile, he developed and managed indirect distribution for the California launch – the largest launch in wireless history. During his last six years at T-Mobile, he focused specifically on developing T-Mobile’s M2M program and go-to market strategy. He also helped T-Mobile earn recognition as the market leader for M2M services. Horn also serves on the board of directors of Ingenu.
