The hype around D2D shows no sign of slowing down, but industry experts are skeptical of its commercial viability
A group of skiers on a backcountry expedition in Lake Tahoe were caught in a massive avalanche Tuesday morning. What was supposed be the last leg of a three-day trip quickly turned into a nightmare, leaving eight dead and six surviving.
The rescue operation of the survivors was just made possible by a tiny function on their iPhone: Emergency SOS — a feature that works via satellite to send text messages to emergency services when there is no cellular or Wi-Fi service.
Using it, the survivors communicated with emergency responders for hours before their location could be tracked. “One of my personnel was communicating with one of the guides over a four-hour period, giving information back to the Nevada sheriff’s office and coordinating what rescues could be permitted,” said Mr. Donald O’Keefe, the law enforcement chief of the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, the New York Times reported.
These are the exact scenarios direct to device (D2D) connectivity is designed for; to provide useful emergency and texting service to users off-the-grid.
Money machine or money pit?
Now as more operators and satellite providers set sights on the burgeoning D2D market, with ambitions to make the service mainstream, one question that is on everybody’s mind is whether D2D is the next big money spinner or money pit?
Research firm IDC made a straightforward prediction in 2025 which checks out with today’s reality. Analyst, Simon Baker said that D2D will not yield billions of dollars in revenue right away.
Just three years back, D2D was a resounding theme at MWC. Several high-profile deals were signed early to cement the buzz, of which the most consequential was perhaps the one between Qualcom and Iridium. Unfortunately, that deal fell through as Qualcomm failed to woo the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) with satellite-enabled chipsets, and ended up shunning the mobile network operators (MNOs) altogether whose support it needed the most.
Other important D2D deals that followed include Samsung-MediaTek, and Apple-Globalstar.
2025 saw lots of movements with trials and beta programs, and the launch of T-Mobile’s T-Satellite with Starlink which is now a nationwide service. But it has’n moved the needle much.
“I don’t think it has really achieved the potential that justifies valuation and investment and everything today,” said Matt Desch, CEO of Iridium, speaking of the possibility of D2D entering mainstream. “If that’s going to happen, it’s going to be at least two to three years away. We are not going to see truly global services yet.”
Most D2D services in the market are free today, at least for the time being — which means providers are not making any money out of it, despite billions of dollars of outlay in satellite infrastructure.
“So far we have not seen a lot of evidence that people want to pay for it, “ Dr. Tim Farrar of TMF Associates told RCR Wireless News. “Most of the operators have made this avaialble for free, they have included it in the plans people take and even then we have not seen an incredibly high levels of usage.”
The jury is still out on whether they would change in the future. But if not, “it’s not going to be a very big market and it’s not going to justify launching thousands of satellites into orbit,” he said.
A panel at the SmallSat Symposium in Silicon Valley late last year which Dr. Farrar moderated dug deeper into this. D2D operators today are adopting one of the two business models: partner with MNOs or go to the users directly. Which of them are more likely to succeed? No one knows. But there is ample skepticism around matters of revenue.
D2D as a paid emergency service can certainly appeal to someone outside the normal service range, but as a permanent add-on to the regular phone plan, many might not be willing to open their purse to.
The disillusionment might be getting real as Dr. Farrar recently wrote on X, “The promises of 5G didn’t pan out, so the hype moved onto D2D. Now reality is gradually starting to dawn there too, as consumers don’t care enough to pay for D2D services (let alone change carrier to get D2D).”
