The hype around D2D shows no sign of slowing down, but some experts are skeptical of its commercial viability
A group of skiers on a backcountry expedition in Lake Tahoe were caught in a massive avalanche Tuesday morning. What was supposed be the last leg of a three-day trip quickly turned into a nightmare, leaving eight dead and six surviving.
The rescue operation of the survivors was just made possible by a tiny function on the iPhone: Emergency SOS — a feature that works via satellite to send text messages to emergency services when there is no cellular or Wi-Fi service.
Using it, survivors communicated with emergency responders for hours before their location could be tracked. “One of my personnel was communicating with one of the guides over a four-hour period, giving information back to the Nevada sheriff’s office and coordinating what rescues could be permitted,” said Mr. Donald O’Keefe, the law enforcement chief of the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, the New York Times reported.
These are the exact scenarios direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity is designed for, to provide useful emergency and texting service to users off-the-grid. Now as operators and satellite providers set sights on the burgeoning D2D market, with ambitions to make the service mainstream, one question that is on everybody’s mind is whether D2D is the next big money spinner or money pit?
Money machine or money pit?
Research firm IDC made a straightforward prediction in 2025 which checks out with the reality today. Analyst, Simon Baker said that D2D will not yield billions of dollars in revenue right away.
Three years back, D2D was a resounding theme at MWC. Several high-profile deals were signed early to cement the buzz, of which the most consequential was perhaps the one between Qualcomm and Iridium.
Unfortunately, that deal fell through as Qualcomm failed to woo the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) with satellite-enabled chipsets, and ended up shunning the mobile network operators (MNOs) altogether whose support it needed the most.
Other important deals followed, including the Samsung-MediaTek one, and the Apple-Globalstar contract which powers Apple’s SOS service today.
2025 saw lots of movements with trials and beta programs, and the launch of T-Mobile’s T-Satellite with Starlink which is now a nationwide service. But none of it has moved the needle as much as companies would like.
Most D2D services in the market are free today, at least for the time being — which means providers are not making any money out of them, despite billions of dollars of outlay in satellite infrastructure.
Dr. Tim Farrar of TMF Associates notes, “So far we have not seen a lot of evidence that people want to pay for it. Most of the operators have made this available for free, they have included it in the plans people take and even then we have not seen an incredibly high levels of usage.”
D2D as a paid emergency service certainly has appeal for hikers, skiers, or any users outside the normal service range — and may even be worth considering for a busy C-suite executive who needs always-on connectivity round the clock. But for most regular customers, it is just an add-on texting service they may or may not need.
A panel at the SmallSat Symposium in Silicon Valley late last year which Dr. Farrar moderated dug deeper into the realities of the D2D market. Companies today adopt one of the three business models to deliver D2D satellite texting to users. First, by partnering with MNOs, eg., Starlink’s partnership with T-Mobile; second, bypassing the carrier and going directly to users, eg., Apple-Globalstar; and third, by adding it as a complementary service to a regular phone plan, eg., Skylo whose D2D texting service is supported by Samsung and Galaxy phones, but needs to be activated by an MNO.
Which of these are more likely to succeed? No one knows. But right now there is ample skepticism around matters of revenue and market maturity.
“I don’t think [D2D] has really achieved the potential that justifies valuation and investment and everything today,” Matt Desch, CEO of Iridium told RCR Wireless News, speaking of the future possibility of D2D entering mainstream. “If that’s going to happen, it’s going to be at least two to three years away. We are not going to see truly global services yet.”
As for whether customer sentiment will change in the future, the jury is still out on that. But if not then “it’s not going to be a very big market and it’s not going to justify launching thousands of satellites into orbit,” Dr. Farrar said.
As Dr. Farrar recently observed on X, “The promises of 5G didn’t pan out, so the hype moved onto D2D. Now reality is gradually starting to dawn there too, as consumers don’t care enough to pay for D2D services (let alone change carrier to get D2D).”
Lead analyst at Mobile Experts, Joe Madden, thinks otherwise. He is upbeat about the future of the D2D market, especially in the IoT space which many providers are eyeing for their D2D service.
Madden believes D2D communications will see 100% growth every year through 2030 if MNOs are able to get their messaging right. According to Madden, if operators can guarantee uninterrupted outdoor coverage with D2D services, the industry has an opportunity to thrive on outdoor use cases like cars, drones and hikers. More on this in his recent research.
Madden’s enthusiasm is backed by a recent Viasat survey which cites industrial IoT as the next big battleground for D2D providers. The survey found 69% respondents planning adoption of D2D services within the next 12 months, and 91% within 18 months.
