Short-term pullback, long-term rebound – US interest in private 5G slumps on economic and political jitters, but global momentum builds as smarter models and automation drive long-term industrial growth.
In sum – what to know:
Short-term setback – US manufacturing interest in private 5G slumps 11% since 2024 – driven by government level policy shifts and tariffs, impacting enterprise ROI calculations.
Global momentum – despite the US reversal, private 5G deployments will triple by 2030, especially in the global manufacturing sector, driven by automation and digital control.
Flexible models – vendors have to get a grip by offering as-a-service options and simpler integration to unlock adoption and demonstrate clearer medium-term returns.
A couple of new analyst reports across the RCR news desk about the state of private 5G take different steers in their headlines but end up saying the same thing – that the private 5G market is a good-looking, albeit long-term, gamble. The key notices are that the US has seen a jaw-dropping 11 percent slump in private 5G rollouts in the manufacturing sector in the last 12 months, versus 2024, and that the global economy, as a whole, will see an eye-catching 194 percent jump in deployments (from 2,500 to over 7,000) in the next five years. So how do you reconcile these findings? Well, you read below and between the lines, right.
The first stat from ABI Research is alarming, no question – considering private cellular networks represent a good 5G growth technology, and a decent 5G investment bet. Of course, such optimism might be hyped-up by the AI pyrotechnics they are supposed to support in industrial edge facilities, and also damped-down by the long industrial upgrade cycles their deployments are required to synchronise with. There are two revolutions in other words: a lightning-fast horizontal one, about how AI will remake the systems of power, and a deathly slow vertical one, about how critical industries are caught between total change and total chaos, and just keeping the lights on.
ABI Research polled 458 ‘decision-makers’ in manufacturing companies in the US, Malaysia, and Germany – presumably as choice samples about regional progress – and concluded in a report that this reversal is parochial; a one-off, confined to the US. Germany and Malaysia have seen “linear maturation” since 2024, it writes. On the other hand, interest from the US manufacturing sector has “plummeted”. The trend is consistent across both private 4G and private 5G networks, it said. The reason? You know why, and you know who. But ABI Research puts it more generally: “budgeting constraints or reprioritization of transformation initiatives, especially amid tariff uncertainties”.
Shadine Taufik, research analyst for enterprise connectivity at ABI Research, says: “Administration changes, geopolitical tensions across key manufacturing hubs in Asia, and prioritization of other, more ROI-centric tech have hindered private cellular growth.” The US private 5G market could yet take a longer-term hit, she writes. “This trend will likely continue as the US administration shapes its trade policies.” At the same time, Juniper Research says the whole market is hunky dory – and, at almost-triple growth over five years, better than that, probably. Revenue from private 4G/5G networks will reach $21.4 billion in 2030 – from just $5.5 billion in 2025.
Which is total growth of 290 percent (almost-triple), and compound annual growth of 31 percent (over five full years). Curiously, Juniper Research reckons the industry is at the dawn of some kind of a golden age, forecasting 3,000 new private 4G/5G networks in the next two years, alone – and so presumably just 1,500 in the subsequent three years (to complete the jump from 2,500 in 2025 to “over 7,000” in 2030). Incidentally, it makes the point in its report that manufacturing is king for private 5G – accounting for 49 percent of total market value in 2030. Other sectors, “including healthcare”, will account for smaller proportions due to “higher costs and underdeveloped infrastructure”.
Whatever, it predicts a “pivotal shift” as data regulations tighten, security threats rise, and enterprises demand tighter control over their digital assets (digital twins of their physical assets) and “look to invest in private networks”. On the face of it, these twin findings are at odds – as per the top-notes. But they are not really. The US is the anomaly in the review by ABI Research. Trump is the anomaly. Global momentum – particularly in Europe and Asia – is accelerating. Short-term local pullback does not equal long-term global stagnation. And the studies agree that the manufacturing sector at large will dominate due to automation needs and established infrastructure.
Moreover, the message from ABI Research is for vendors to offer more flex. Taufik comments: “ROI for private networks is not widely known – chief information officers would likely rather invest in technologies with more recognizable benefits. Given the range of uncertainties faced by US companies, as-a-service offerings must be pushed to promote flexible adoption. More than ever, it is important for infrastructure vendors, system integrators, and mobile network operators to promote the cost-saving benefits of private cellular, highlighting the medium-term benefits of their products to elicit greater interest amid the instability.”
Which is plain. And Juniper Networks says as much, as if such op/ex models are already in play, ready to drive this golden age. Research author Michelle Joynson writes: “The key catalyst of this momentous growth was availability of network-as-a-service business models, which reduces costs to enterprises while offering rapid scalability.” The firm also notes more variable infrastructure options, notably with the availability of neutral-host solutions as a gateway drug for future Industry 5.0 fixes on private 5G. “Neutral host models will not only lower the barrier to entry for many sectors, they will also accelerate the adoption of private 5G, which has been historically slow.”
But Joynson also notes the challenges: “Market growth has been slow despite the clear advantages and increasing need for these types of networks. This is due to several challenges, including the cost and integration complexity of deploying these networks… Vendors must focus on providing seamless integration services, enabling rapid deployment and reduced costs.” Bottom line, then: private 5G is evolving from hard-pressed hype to hard-won deployment – and further success hinges on smarter business models and tailored value propositions, which are mostly in tow. Plus the minutiae of proving returns, integrating systems, and building trust.
