New numbers, just in (further discussion here); analyst group Dell’Oro Group says private 4G/5G RAN revenues jumped around 40 percent in 2023, compared to 2022, with Nokia, Ericsson, and Huawei leading global sales during “this initial phase” – and Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung dominating all non-China sales. It means private 4G/5G comprises around two percent of the overall RAN market, and is bucking the trend insofar as both public cellular RAN and enterprise WLAN sales are projected to contract in 2024. Dell’Oro Group called it “formidable” growth.
At the same time,private 4G/5G radio access network (RAN) sales slipped marginally in the fourth quarter of 2023 on a year-over-year basis, according to the forecast. Dell’Oro Group said the “$20-plus billion enterprise RAN opportunity remains largely untapped”, still, and continues to draw interest from a range of suppliers, even if the usual RAN suspects are “well positioned”. Its overall estimate for private 4G/5G RAN sales is “mostly unchanged”, it said – but actually three percent higher than its “last report”.
It put this down to a broader analysis of the market, including a better view of tier-two private RAN specialists and startups (“bottom-up vendor analysis versus the initial top-down calculations”). It added: “In addition, the industry is now past the hype phase and in a better place from a forecasting perspective.” Eighteen months ago, it adjusted down its near-term private LTE/5G forecast, on the grounds sales were “below expectations”, suggesting the market will roughly double in the five year period between 2022 and 2026, to finish between $0.8 billion and $1 billion.
It seems 2023 sales have encouraged it to raise its forecast, marginally. Total private LTE/5G RAN revenues will grow at a compound annual rate (CAGR) of 21 percent over five years – while public LTE/5G RAN revenues will decline at a two percent rate over the same time period. Private 5G RAN revenues will be in the “$1-billion to $2-billion range” by 2028, it said. “5G is dominating in China, while LTE is dominating outside of China.” It stated: “The high-level message has not changed – private wireless is a massive opportunity, but will take time for enterprises to embrace.”
Stefan Pongratz, vice president at Dell’Oro Group, commented: “Although public RAN is still fueling the lion’s share of the overall RAN capex and the overall investment levels are tracking below some of the initial projections provided by the vendors in the early part of the 5G enterprise hype cycle, the fact of the matter is that private wireless is now growing at a formidable pace. This stands in contrast to public RAN and enterprise WLAN – both segments are projected to contract in 2024.”
For more on this subject, check out the new editorial report from RCR Wireless on private 5G hype and reality; click here or below for the report. Click here for the intro section, which considers various market forecasts and reviews by various analysts.
