YOU ARE AT:OpinionKagan: Why 5G wireless is not meeting user expectations

Kagan: Why 5G wireless is not meeting user expectations

Will 5G Advanced live up to expectations?

Since its launch several years ago, we expected 5G to be the next, big bang in wireless. Like with 3G and 4G we expected it to sweep across the industry, changing our lives. Instead, it has disappointed users, so far at least. What is the problem with this new technology, and will it get any better before 6G comes knocking at the door?

While 5G is incredibly important, it is simply not showing the immediate growth we expected.

Some of the leaders in the wireless revolution are starting to make some changes in their marketing messages. They are trying to juice things up. Will this help?

Example: Huawei started with something called 5.5G. Qualcomm will unveil their attempt with 5G Advanced at the upcoming wireless trade show MWC23 in Barcelona.

Huawei, Qualcomm, Nokia, Ericsson, Juniper Networks, NTT, Xiaomi

I think since Huawei and Qualcomm are taking this new direction, we can expect others to join the party.

That means we can very likely expect the same kind of change in 5G marketing from Nokia, Ericsson, Juniper Networks, NTT, Xiaomi and others, worldwide.

We expected a rapid rise in user acceptance in wireless with 5G, like we saw with 3G and 4G.

Some companies are seeing growth. These are companies who help networks build.

The reason is networks continue to upgrade their networks for competitive reasons. They fear that users will leave them if they don’t.

They may be right. Most users think they use 5G. However, most still have no real need for it with 4G and LTE serving their needs today.

So, one of the main problems are getting the user to buy in, and getting new technology to enter, like we saw with Uber and Lyft car service, or wireless pay TV or music and videos with 3G and 4G.

There are actually many different reasons for this lull. A few of them include the Covid-19 pandemic, the supply chain bottlenecks, work-at-home, the weak economy, reduced stock price and much more.

Users are disappointed with Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T 5G wireless

One main reason is the customer. Ask any user who rushed to upgrade to 5G, and if they have an opinion, they have been disappointed.

The speed increase has not really shown itself with many users. The average wireless users thinks that LTE is close enough without all the fanfare.

Watching pay TV or listening to music or talk shows on the smartphone is a better experience, but apparently not enough to move the needle for the user.

5.5G will help reset marketing around wireless

We had this kind of problem in the past with 2G. If you recall, between 2G and 3G the industry created something called 2.5G.

It didn’t change the technology as much as it helped to reset the marketing reality around wireless.

That seems like what Huawei and Qualcomm are doing with their next generation of 5G wireless.

MWC23 showdown: Huawei 5.5G vs. Qualcomm 5G Advanced

Yes, there are differences between Huawei’s 5G and 5.5G. Yes, there are differences between 5G and 5G Advanced from Qualcomm.

But will these differences really make any impact with the user and the investor? Some say yes. Others say no. We will just have to wait and see.

One thing that would be helpful is for the industry to settle on a name. Rather than having each company label this with their own name, one industry identifying would be helpful.

That would let investors and users know this is an industry issue, not just a company problem.

5G brings increased speed and low latency

The difference between 5G and 4G is both speed and immediacy or low latency. That mean 5G is faster and it is more instant.

That will launch many new kinds of technologies and change user experiences like Automated Driving and Tele Medicine, advanced healthcare and so much more.

While 5G is changing these spaces, there is simply not enough focus to get the investor and user excited, as they should be.

5G and Automated Driving, TeleMedicine, Healthcare, retail and more

The problem is, it has been several years and even though this new technology is moving forward, it is taking much longer than initially expected.

That’s having an impact on companies in this sector.

5G is also changing the way other industries deliver their services. This is creating new industry growth in many other areas.

That is where the excitement is when I look at the new 5G wireless space.

Not, the kind of services that are launching today, but it’s about the start of new services which we will use tomorrow.

AI, Chatbot, ChatGPT, Bard and other new technology uses 5G wireless

Think about AI, Chatbot, ChatGPT, Bard and other technologies. Think about vastly improved healthcare, retail, self-driving cars, automated driving and countless other industries and how they will change with this new technology.

So, 5G remains an incredibly important next step in the transformation of our society thanks to wireless technology.

However, the exciting changes are not showing up with wireless users. Rather, the excitement is coming from the advancement of new technologies and how they will forever change our lives and our civilization.

There are many challenges ahead. We need to make sure that we continue to remain in control as the technology develops and evolves.    

Private wireless; Qualcomm, Betacom, Ericsson, Cradlepoint, NTT, Cisco

An area that is showing acceleration and growth is private wireless. There are an increasing number of players in this segment.

Wireless networks like Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile are public service providers who are starting to offer a private networking service. This gives the user more control and security, but not to the same level as a real private network.

Increasingly, Qualcomm with their Betacom partnership, Ericsson with Cradlepoint, Nokia, Cisco, NTT, Microsoft, Google and others are showing solid growth in this new segment.

Private wireless will continue to show rapid growth going forward because if offers increased security and complete control for companies with their communications.

Viiz grows in Operator, 9-1-1 Emergency Service, Directory Assistance

As growth moves from one sector to another in the telecommunications industry, it also creates new, growth opportunities.

We have all heard about how landline carriers like Verizon, AT&T, CenturyLink and countless other firms are seeing demand for their landline services shrink. Customers are moving to wireless or VoIP.

As a result, these companies are terminating services like Operator, Emergency Services and Directory Assistance.

However, customers still need these services. That has created a new opportunity.

Viiz has stepped in and now provides these services to communications providers who no longer want to run these on their own dime.

So, as you can see, as the communications industry goes through its enormous change wave, it creates new growth opportunities.

5G wireless is important next step into the future, but takes a while

I believe 5G is an important steppingstone into the future. However, we are still in the transformative stags, so the benefits of this new technology may take a while to show up in our everyday lives.

That means carriers like Verizon Wireless, T-Mobile USA and AT&T Mobility will have to invest just to keep up with the competition. However, they may not see significantly increased revenue. Not yet anyway.

However, when it happens, and I fully believe it will happen, it will be quick and change the world virtually overnight the same way the Apple iPhone and Google Android did a decade and a half ago.

ABOUT AUTHOR

Jeff Kagan
Jeff Kaganhttp://jeffkagan.com
Jeff is a RCR Wireless News Columnist, Industry Analyst, Key Opinion Leader and Influencer. He shares his colorful perspectives and opinions on the companies and technologies that are transforming the industry he has followed for 35 years. Jeff follows wireless, wire line telecom, Internet, Pay-TV, cable TV, AI, IoT, Digital Healthcare, Cloud, Mobile Pay, Smart cities, Smart Homes and more.