We have seen this movie before. In fact, the wireless networks and smartphone market has grown and changed many times over the last several decades from 2G to 3G and 4G. Every time there is always a slowdown just before the pick-up in growth to the next G. That’s what’s happening today. We are preparing for the 5G growth wave which is just beginning.
As the marketplace shifts, we see the same thing happening with many wireless companies like Qualcomm, Apple, Google, Samsung and more. These are companies on the network side and smartphone side of the marketplace.
On the smartphone side, the quarter before the annual upgrade is introduced, is traditionally the slowest. The network side does not upgrade yearly. The move between generations like 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G takes nearly a decade. So, the same thing seems to happen, just not with the same timing.
While Apple, Google and Samsung slowdown every year for one quarter with their iPhone and Android, companies like Qualcomm slow down for a few quarters before the next big network and handset upgrade every few years. It’s all part of the same, regular growth wave with highs and lows.
In fact, this happens in other industries as well. As an example, think about the automotive industry. Just before the new models come out, sales of the previous version slow. That’s why the automotive industry puts the older model on sale. After all, who would pay the same for last year’s model?
The good news is, we are just beginning the next growth wave to 5G. So, today as we begin to move to 5G on the network level and the handset level, we can expect the same thing that always happens.
As we approach this next big shift to 5G, it’s only natural to expect players to slow down both on the network side and the handset side of the wireless industry.
Shift to 5G will be bigger than ever for networks, smartphone and devices
The good news is I expect the 5G growth wave to be larger and deeper than any previous version. First, the wireless industry is larger with every shift from one G to the next. Second, this shift to 5G will also include many other companies and technologies in other industries as well.
In fact, other industries will continue to jump in, transform and grow their industries as well. Think about self-driving cars, wireless pay TV, entertainment, retail and in fact every other industry.
We have not even begun to scratch the surface of the transformation that awaits us as a society over the next several years.
The good news is this transformation means growth for both the networks and the handsets and all the companies that serve that community. That is great news for companies that helps networks and handset makers transform to 5G.
Bottom line, this lull between 4G and 5G is normal and happens between every generation. It’s normal. I fully expect all top players and competitors to ramp up after the next quarter or two.
The next growth wave will be larger than ever and last nearly a decade. It will include other companies in other industries who will all go wireless to gain a competitive advantage.
In fact, as always, this coming 5G growth wave will continue until we get ready for 6G. That’s right, we have been on this journey for quite a long time and we will only continue.
