Expect more from mobile in 2016
Editor’s Note: With 2016 now upon us, RCR Wireless News has gathered predictions from leading industry analysts and executives on what they expect to see in the new year.
In the mobile industry, we experience life in the fast lane. Things change quickly – new capabilities, new features, new devices, new user interests – which makes this an exciting industry to be a part of. That is not likely change as we move into 2016.
Smartphone photography and video capabilities are an area in particular that promises to continue to rapidly advance in 2016. Smartphones are graduating from serving as a “snapshot” camera to an enthusiast-grade machine thanks to applications and technologies like Live Photo, slow motion and software that will let consumers edit directly on the handset. It’s a virtuous circle. As imaging capabilities and performance improve on phones, consumers will take more pictures and videos, which in turn will encourage manufacturers and others to devise new products to meet the new expectations.
With more people taking pictures with their smartphones, camera makers are doing what you’d expect: pushing the boundaries of technology and exploring new markets. 3D cameras, virtual reality systems, massive megapixels, cameras that can take 360 degree panoramic images and video, and cameras that can shoot 1,000 frames per second are some of the things to expect. Over the next year, we will likely see more steps towards a radically new camera market. Another mobile phenomenon is 4K ultra-high definition, which consumers will experience first on smartphones, with the content they experience often shot by individuals like themselves. Expect to see new sites and new ways of taking advantage of extreme resolution come from unexpected places.
It’s hard to imagine, but the first camera smartphone — and the explosion of social media it has enabled — only came out 15 years ago. It had a resolution of 0.1 megapixels. Change happens rapidly.
When you talk about smartphones, you also need to talk about the elephant in the room. Networking is one of the miracles of the digital revolution, but it’s also the pain point. Users want to download larger files more frequently in less time. Global Internet traffic will grow by three fold over the next five years, according to some predictions. Users will begin to download movies that could take up to 80 gigabytes. Average Internet speeds, meanwhile, may only climb from 5 megabits per second today to 11.3 Mbps by 2019, according to Danny Kaye, EVP of global research and technology strategy at 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. We will need gigabit-per-second speeds to exchange gigabyte-sized files painlessly. In 2016, we will see companies start to push the envelope on networking speeds. You may also see companies explore creative strategies for caching, spectrum hopping and managing the “Internet of Things.”
Another pain point for smartphones has been the upgrade. In 2016, look for the end of the two-year upgrade wait. For years, wireless carrier contracts have dictated when many of us buy or upgrade our smartphone – the inevitable two-year contract meant an upgrade every two years. In 2016, consumers will turn in smartphones more rapidly than ever before thanks to contracts that allow them to upgrade quickly. This means many will get the latest technology much quicker while the rest of the world will be able to enjoy a (nearly) cutting-edge refurbished smartphone. Repurposed smartphones are also becoming a significant market, expected to grow from 53 million in 2014 to 275 million in a few years. A typical high-end smartphone can get $50 while a good iPhone can fetch you $200 to $400.
These trends promise to continue to drive skyrocketing smartphone capacity. According to IDC, the digital universe will be a staggering 44 trillion gigabytes in 2020. Our data consumption and generation is rapidly increasing. One area where that is easy to see is in our mobile devices where more and more photos and videos are being captured, application size growing and many of us have a constant connection to social media.
Smartphone manufacturers, in turn, are dramatically expanding capacities. In 2015, the average premium smartphone came with 38.9 GB of storage. By 2018, average capacity for premium smartphones will nearly double to 77.2 GB worldwide, according to SanDisk Market Intelligence. Interestingly, high-end smartphones such as the iPhone 6 and Samsung Galaxy S6 already have as much capacity (128 GB) as the entry-level MacBook Air, and it is possible to instantly add 200 GB of storage to compatible smartphones with a microSDXC card.
We’ll also see new faces shaking up the mobile ecosystem in 2016. Who was the fastest growing smartphone maker in the second quarter? Huawei, says Gartner. China brands, particularly brands like Xiaomi, Lenovo and Huawei, will continue to shake up smartphone markets with new designs and new ways of selling directly to consumers.
Ultimately, our smartphones are becoming our gateway to everything connected. Not long ago we started relying on our smartphone to take pictures or to navigate us to our destination. Now, I can use my mobile device to start a car, unlock my front door or turn the channel on the television – or even replace my television altogether. As mobile device dependence increases, we will see it continue to converge with the “Internet of Things” trend to create new capabilities in 2016 that were never before possible. Whatever they are, having fast, responsive storage will undoubtedly be pivotal to ensuring they deliver a good user experience.
