A new market research report finds that T-Mobile US has overtaken Sprint in terms of total subscribers, thereby claiming the No. 3 domestic carrier spot. The researchers said that while T-Mobile US and Sprint are undertaking network upgrades, AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless will remain the market share leaders at least until 2020.
Produced by Boston-based Strategy Analytics, the report is titled “US Wireless Outlook: Can T-Mobile and Sprint Disrupt AT&T and Verizon Wireless?”
One major study finding is that 100 million new wireless connections, excluding machine-to-machine connections, will be made by 2020, effectively propelling the U.S. to a 128% mobile penetration rate. Despite those impressive figures, subscriber growth is slowing, which means carriers are emphasizing moving customers onto smartphones and LTE networks.
The report finds that mobile service revenue will hit $197 billion annually by 2020, up from $195 billion this year.
Susan Welsh de Grimaldo, director of wireless operator strategies for Strategy Analytics, said the U.S. wireless market is focused on evolution.
“From voice to text to data and now to constant connectivity and what you do with it – competition for market share and retention of subscribers take center stage. Neck-and-neck No. 3 and 4 – challenger T-Mobile US with its pro-consumer un-carrier strategy and straggler Sprint that has shown great strides in network performance – are focused on network efforts to reach LTE network parity with the top two and market offers aimed to grow share, yet need to also address higher churn levels and margins.”
In February, Sprint and T-Mobile US reported quarterly subscriber numbers from the last quarter of 2014. Sprint self-reported 55.9 million and T-Mobile US tallied slightly more than 55 million.
But — here’s where it gets tricky — Sprint’s filing indicated the count included 1.7 million customers who had been inactive for at least six months. T-Mobile US CEO John Legere said those subscribers don’t count and, once subtracted, position T-Mobile US as the No. 3 carrier.
The report found that “no major shifts in market share among the top four carriers” is expected between now and 2020.
Strategy Analytics’ executive director of wireless operator strategies, Phil Kendall, said Verizon Wireless and AT&T Mobility “share strategies as defenders of market leadership to find growth by diversifying revenue base, building platforms, engaging the broader ecosystem and developing multiscreen video offerings. Yet there is perhaps more divergence in their strategies now than in recent years.”
“Other players add to the dynamic marketplace, with Google now entered on to the scene as a [mobile virtual network operator] and Dish having amassed more spectrum but not revealed strategy,” Kendall added. “MVNOs have been on an upswing, with Wi-Fi-first and target segment approaches.”
